Duma's Choice: Pass It or Perish

To some legislators in the State Duma, the proposed 1995 budget may do more than set a framework for the Russian economy: It may spell life or death for the parliament.


The soft treatment of Defense Minister Pavel Grachev by hardliners in the Duma on Friday is an indication of how seriously the opposition to President Boris Yeltsin is taking the budget debate which is expected to begin within the next few weeks.


Hardline deputies applauded as the minister appealed for a 250 percent increase in allocations for the military. They were so heartened by the general's words that they were even willing to forget the shelling of the old parliament building by his troops last year.


"The communists and nationalists saw him as one of them, a man who spoke their language," said Duma Defense Committee chairman Sergei Yushenkov. "It was impossible for them to demand his resignation after that."


"After this, it is hard to expect the Duma to pass a realistic defense budget," said Yushenkov, a member of the Russia's Choice reformist faction.


His pessimism echoed Saturday's remarks by the faction's leader, Yegor Gaidar, who said the Duma was not likely to pass any budget. As a result, Gaidar added, Yeltsin is likely to dissolve the parliament.


Gaidar even announced that his party was beginning to prepare for early parliamentary elections next spring. Yushenkov, too, said early elections were likely.


However, the head of the Duma's budget committee sees Gaidar's veiled threat as an attempt to make legislators handle the budget with care.


"The budget is unrealistic on both revenue and spending," said Mikhail Zadornov of the liberal Yabloko faction. "But Gaidar's statement amounts to blackmail of the Duma, an attempt to force it to pass the budget."


Zadornov and other deputies with a special interest in economic affairs have pointedly downplayed the possible political implications of the budget debate. They are looking forward to passage of a budget revised with their help and enforced by the special body the Duma has voted to set up -- the Counting Chamber. .


Yushenkov said he was not certain that the Duma would torpedo the budget if faced with dismissal, indirectly giving credence to interpretations that Gaidar's remarks were merely meant to warn deputies to go easy on the budget.


No one in the Duma, outside the pro-government Russia's Choice with its possible ulterior motives, is predicting outright that the budget will be rejected. However, many legislators say the fight will be tough.


Friday's discussion of a key government tax plan, closely linked to the budget, is an indication of just how tough it will be. The six taxation bills designed to streamline the current convoluted tax system were rejected out of hand by all factions.


There were signs Monday that the budget's future is not as bleak as it may seem. A top aide to Liberal Democratic Party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said their ultranationalist faction will vote for the budget in whatever form.


"We will vote for it from the start," said Alexei Mitrofanov. "We take a philosophical approach: Russia's strategic development is more important than how much money this or that ministry gets next year."


Viktor Zorkaltsev, a leading Communist who heads the Duma's Public Organizations committee, also said the deputies would be constructive in their approach to the budget.


"The president and the Duma are working well enough together to coordinate the final version of the budget," he said.


Could it be that the instinct for self-preservation is taking over already?





-- Svetlana Vinogradova contributed to this article.