President Boris Yeltsin has paused, with his tanks only miles from Grozny.
Yeltsin's decision late Thursday to postpone by another 48 hours his ultimatum to the Chechens to lay down their arms has given a small breathing space to the Chechen crisis.
There are two contrary explanations for the delay.
Either Moscow needs more time to move in and attack Grozny, the Chechen capital, or resolve is crumbling for what would be a hugely costly operation.
The dramatic news of the virtual mutiny Friday of General Ivan Babichev, the commander of one of the three armored columns advancing on Grozny, could fit either scenario.
The men in the Kremlin may just need extra time to replace Babichev with a new commander, or they could be having doubts about whether the army has the stomach to continue its campaign against virtually a whole population.
The evidence on the ground is that Babichev is not alone in his view.
Correspondents have reported a David and Goliath syndrome in which well-equipped Russians seem confused and demoralized, while the lightly armed Chechen fighters are exultant and full of purpose.
Only one of three columns of tanks, coming from the north, had come near the city Friday.
Babichev's column, advancing from the west, had barely moved since Wednesday morning and was still some 40 kilometers from the Chechen capital.
The position of a third column, which entered Chechnya from Dagestan, was uncertain.
"It seems there's a certain lack of coordination, and that the soldiers involved don't have their hearts in it," commented one Western defense attach?.
The attach? said the Russians' military superiority was vast -- a matter of "using a sledgehammer to crack a nut." He said Russian forces could be in Grozny almost instantly, if they had to.
"If there were the political will, they could do it very easily," the defense attach? said.
Calculations about an attack on Grozny are very bleak for the military planners.
Most observers agree that if the city is stormed there will be large-scale casualties among both the civilian population and Russian forces.
The Russian Air Force would have to bombard ordinary apartment blocks to hit Chechen antiaircraft weapons positioned on rooftops and in courtyards.
Fighters are scattered everywhere in the densely populated city.
In the face of this, it seems possible that many ordinary soldiers would follow Babichev's example and refuse to engage in what could be a kamikaze operation.
Throughout the crisis there has been a cacophony of different opinions on Chechnya.
Officials have disagreed in public, and one day's statements have frequently contradicted those of the day before.
The postponement of the ultimatum and Babichev's d?marche were a setback for the "Party of War," the group of ministers around Yeltsin who have been pushing for a military solution to the Chechen crisis.
But the moderates had only a little more to celebrate after Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, who has taken a more conciliatory line on the crisis, was rebuffed by Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, who refused to take up his offer of talks.
Yeltsin's own position in this melee remains an enigma.
The president was shown on television Friday for the first time in a week, meeting American Vice President Al Gore in the special Kremlin hospital where he is recovering from a minor nose operation. He sounded the well-worn theme that Chechnya is a nest of criminals.
The longer Yeltsin has stayed out of the public eye, the more speculation has grown about how fully in control he is of events.
Other than the two ultimatums he has issued, his public comments on the crisis since last Sunday's intervention have been limited to 20 words in an interview to Argumenty i Fakty.
Yeltsin's press service could not say Friday when Yeltsin would leave the hospital, although his press secretary had predicted he would be discharged the day before.
National television and Itar-Tass reported the president was going to make an address late Thursday but when the statement came -- another ultimatum -- it only came in written form.
Nikolai Svanidze, the host of the political television program Podrobnosti, said Thursday that the only two people with constant access to Yeltsin in the hospital were his aide Viktor Ilyushin and his head bodyguard, General Alexander Korzhakov.
The two, both old friends of Yeltsin, are commonly acknowledged to be the biggest influences on him.
Svanidze said Ilyushin was playing the role of dove -- with Korzhakov siding opposite as a hawk -- on Chechen policy, and that the debate between them would be a key factor in how events unfolded.
On Friday, at least, the doves appeared to have won back a little of the initiative.
Yeltsin's decision late Thursday to postpone by another 48 hours his ultimatum to the Chechens to lay down their arms has given a small breathing space to the Chechen crisis.
There are two contrary explanations for the delay.
Either Moscow needs more time to move in and attack Grozny, the Chechen capital, or resolve is crumbling for what would be a hugely costly operation.
The dramatic news of the virtual mutiny Friday of General Ivan Babichev, the commander of one of the three armored columns advancing on Grozny, could fit either scenario.
The men in the Kremlin may just need extra time to replace Babichev with a new commander, or they could be having doubts about whether the army has the stomach to continue its campaign against virtually a whole population.
The evidence on the ground is that Babichev is not alone in his view.
Correspondents have reported a David and Goliath syndrome in which well-equipped Russians seem confused and demoralized, while the lightly armed Chechen fighters are exultant and full of purpose.
Only one of three columns of tanks, coming from the north, had come near the city Friday.
Babichev's column, advancing from the west, had barely moved since Wednesday morning and was still some 40 kilometers from the Chechen capital.
The position of a third column, which entered Chechnya from Dagestan, was uncertain.
"It seems there's a certain lack of coordination, and that the soldiers involved don't have their hearts in it," commented one Western defense attach?.
The attach? said the Russians' military superiority was vast -- a matter of "using a sledgehammer to crack a nut." He said Russian forces could be in Grozny almost instantly, if they had to.
"If there were the political will, they could do it very easily," the defense attach? said.
Calculations about an attack on Grozny are very bleak for the military planners.
Most observers agree that if the city is stormed there will be large-scale casualties among both the civilian population and Russian forces.
The Russian Air Force would have to bombard ordinary apartment blocks to hit Chechen antiaircraft weapons positioned on rooftops and in courtyards.
Fighters are scattered everywhere in the densely populated city.
In the face of this, it seems possible that many ordinary soldiers would follow Babichev's example and refuse to engage in what could be a kamikaze operation.
Throughout the crisis there has been a cacophony of different opinions on Chechnya.
Officials have disagreed in public, and one day's statements have frequently contradicted those of the day before.
The postponement of the ultimatum and Babichev's d?marche were a setback for the "Party of War," the group of ministers around Yeltsin who have been pushing for a military solution to the Chechen crisis.
But the moderates had only a little more to celebrate after Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, who has taken a more conciliatory line on the crisis, was rebuffed by Chechen leader Dzhokhar Dudayev, who refused to take up his offer of talks.
Yeltsin's own position in this melee remains an enigma.
The president was shown on television Friday for the first time in a week, meeting American Vice President Al Gore in the special Kremlin hospital where he is recovering from a minor nose operation. He sounded the well-worn theme that Chechnya is a nest of criminals.
The longer Yeltsin has stayed out of the public eye, the more speculation has grown about how fully in control he is of events.
Other than the two ultimatums he has issued, his public comments on the crisis since last Sunday's intervention have been limited to 20 words in an interview to Argumenty i Fakty.
Yeltsin's press service could not say Friday when Yeltsin would leave the hospital, although his press secretary had predicted he would be discharged the day before.
National television and Itar-Tass reported the president was going to make an address late Thursday but when the statement came -- another ultimatum -- it only came in written form.
Nikolai Svanidze, the host of the political television program Podrobnosti, said Thursday that the only two people with constant access to Yeltsin in the hospital were his aide Viktor Ilyushin and his head bodyguard, General Alexander Korzhakov.
The two, both old friends of Yeltsin, are commonly acknowledged to be the biggest influences on him.
Svanidze said Ilyushin was playing the role of dove -- with Korzhakov siding opposite as a hawk -- on Chechen policy, and that the debate between them would be a key factor in how events unfolded.
On Friday, at least, the doves appeared to have won back a little of the initiative.
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