Bread is on everybody's lips in Armenia these days, or rather the fact that it is not. Armenians are literally on the bread line as the country heads into winter, and it is making them anxious. Six-hour waits to buy a loaf have become commonplace as huge lines form each day outside bread shops. Even so, demand out strips supply, with the result that lucky customers simply wait again - all day if necessary - until a fresh batch is delivered.


One recent Saturday, I witnessed more than 300 people standing outside a central Yerevan store when the bread van arrived - at 1 A. M. Police had arrested 16 black marketeers for trying to buy up bread supplies at baking factories and selling them at heavily inflated prices.


Policemen also routinely stand guard at shops whenever bread is delivered, to keep order among increasingly concerned (and hungry) citizens.


Dependent on imports of flour, Armenia has been hit hard by the conflict in Abkhazia, which has disrupted supply routes from the north through Georgia. An economic blockade imposed on Armenia by Azerbaijan long ago closed lines through that country.


The European Community gave Armenia 30 million ECU (about $20 million) in credits earlier this year to buy grain, with the proviso that the suppliers should be East European farmers. Quantities arrived at ports on the Black Sea, where they remain because Armenia has been unable to arrange secure train or road transport through Georgia.


The bread crisis is already having political consequences. Armenia recently appealed to Turkey to send 100, 000 tons of wheat, enough for 100 day's flour supply. The irony of asking their historical enemy, accused of killing 1. 5 million Armenians in 1915, to help feed them through the winter was not lost on many Armenians.


But it may thaw relations between two countries whose borders have remained closed. Turkey's prime minister, Suleyman Demirel, has invited Armenian representatives to explain their proposal. It agreement is reached, it could open the doors to wider trade contacts that would allow Armenia to escape its geographical isolation and help Turkey penetrate further into Central Asia.


The deepening economic crisis is also one factor in the sudden quickening of pace in talks with Azerbaijan to resolve the dispute in Nagorno-Karabakh. It remains to be seen whether the Armenians in Karabakh, long used to much greater hardships than those now being experienced in Yerevan, will be quite so willing to swallow any deal the two sides cook up.


But, alone among the former Soviet republics, Armenia must resolve the fundamental question this winter of how to feed itself. Not only is bread in short supply, but butter, cheese and meat have almost disappeared from government stores, and can be bought only for sky-high prices in private shops and markets.


No one is talking of starvation, and so far the government has decided against interference in the developing free market by imposing rationing. But there is genuine nervousness about how Armenia will make it through the winter if the situation does not improve.


With continuing shortages of fuel, power outages are lengthening as the days become colder and darker. The mood among the people here grows gloomier as they shiver in the memory of last winter's misery.


Last year they had reassured themselves with the thought that life would soon get better in the newly independent country. This year, with no such comforting illusions, they must face the prospect not only of being cold, but hungry too.


Tony Halpin is a freelance journalist based in Armenia.