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U.S. President Barack Obama descends on Moscow on Monday in the first major encounter between U.S. and Russian leaders since they both agreed to hit the “reset” button.”
Obama’s push to re-engineer the troubled U.S.-Russia relationship has already turned into a policy challenge for the Kremlin. President Dmitry Medvedev’s team is finding the Obama administration increasingly difficult to deal with because unlike former U.S. President George W. Bush, it is prepared to call Russia’s bluff.
While slowly moving to allay some of Russia’s worst fears, Obama is challenging Russia to put its money where its mouth is and prove that it can bring value to the deal.
Obama’s call for a replacement agreement to START I came with a suggestion to drastically reduce nuclear weapons, something that Russia cannot agree to without undermining its security but cannot reject out of hand either. Moscow’s wrenching deliberations on the issue were on full display in Medvedev’s tortured response two weeks ago.
Obama has decided to seriously explore Medvedev’s call for a new security architecture in Europe. When in Moscow, he will prod Medvedev further on the details of his plan, which the Russian side might find it hard to provide.
Washington surprised Moscow last week with an unanticipated offer to immediately reboot the Russian-NATO relationship, which has been frozen since Russia’s war with Georgia. In exchange, the Obama administration wants much more Russian logistical and military support on Afghanistan.
Obama is purposefully bypassing Kiev and Tbilisi on his third European tour in three months, signaling his pragmatic choice of priorities. Change can be enacted by constructing a new relationship with Paris, Berlin and Moscow, not with Warsaw, Kiev or Tbilisi.
Obama’s intention to secure Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organization early next year as a prelude to graduating Russia from the infamous Jackson-Vanick amendment was scuttled by Moscow’s decision to apply for WTO membership as a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan.
Obama is challenging Medvedev to prove that he is interested in solving problems and not grandstanding on them. Medvedev wants Obama to show that the United States will listen to what Russia had to say. Both should be careful what they wish for.
Vladimir Frolov is president of LEFF Group, a government-relations and PR company.
