We have been speculating for more than a year about whether President Dmitry Medvedev would be able to display even the slightest evidence of independent decision-making. Until now, most Russia-watchers concluded that Medvedev was no more than a loyal appendage of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.
But on Nov. 24, we saw a new, strong-willed side of Medvedev when he fired three generals and one colonel for their negligence in the explosions that occurred one day earlier at a Navy weapons arsenal in Ulyanovsk, 800 kilometers east of Moscow. It was the second major explosion at the arsenal within 10 days. The first occurred on Nov. 13, leading to a raging fire that left two people dead. The second explosion killed eight people.
Officials in Ulyanovsk were in a state of panic. Medvedev was due to arrive in Ulyanovsk the day after the second explosion as part of a previously scheduled trip. They ordered workers to feverishly clean up the aftermath before the president’s arrival in an attempt to hide as much damage as possible. But the cleanup efforts didn’t help.
The dismissals were not typical by any means. They were dishonorable discharges for gross negligence. The firings are highly significant precisely because they differ so much from Putin’s policy toward the military. As president, Putin almost never fired military officials for negligence. The military (and other members of the siloviki) formed the foundation of Putin’s presidency. Thus, there was an unwritten agreement between them: Putin forgave the generals for their blunders as long as they showed unconditional loyalty to him.
This would explain why no punishments were meted out to the siloviki responsible for the high death rate among hostages in the Dubrovka theater siege in 2002, or to those who carry direct responsibility for the bungled rescue attempt at Beslan School No. 1 in which more than 330 hostages were killed. In each case, the Kremlin tried to shift responsibility for the tragedy either to television reporters, who aired live footage of the rescue mission conducted by the government’s special forces, or to the secret plot by foreign powers to weaken Russia.
The only time that Putin fired high-ranking military officials was when he summarily dismissed several admirals who reported false information to him when the Kursk submarine sank in 2000. But they were relieved of duty only one year after the tragedy, after which they were all given cushy jobs. For example, former Northern Fleet commander, Admiral Vyacheslav Popov, is now a senator in the Federation Council and former Navy Chief of Staff Admiral Mikhail Motsak is working in the administration of the presidential envoy to the Northwest Federal District.
By giving dishonorable discharges to military officials, Medvedev broke Putin’s unwritten agreement with the armed forces. From now on, loyalty to the Kremlin leadership will not guarantee that generals have impunity and job security.
The dismissed generals and colonel were at the wrong place at the wrong time. Medvedev needed fall guys to help him look tough, particularly at a time when Russians are disgusted with the increase in police abuses over the past months. The logical thing for Medvedev to do would be to fire Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev. But he can’t do this because Nurgaliyev was appointed by Putin, and apparently Putin is not yet ready to dismiss him. Nonetheless, Medvedev showed that he can at least fire some military officials.
But it cannot be ruled out that the fired generals and colonel will find a way to snub the commander-in-chief. Recall what happened when Putin dismissed several members of the Federal Security Service who had been implicated in contraband operations connected with the Tri Kita affair. The officials in question continued going to work each day, saying they had not received any dismissal papers from their superiors.
At the same time, Medvedev might get a taste for this new tough way of doing things and start firing other negligent officials — and not only from the Army.
Alexander Golts is deputy editor of the online newspaper Yezhednevny Zhurnal.
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