"God hath a great plague in store for this people", predicted Jerome Horsey, England's chief commercial agent in Moscow, at the end of the 16th century. Sure enough, within a couple of years Muscovy had plunged into an era of war, famine and unrest as turbulent as anything in its history.


Is Russia destined to have another Time of Troubles? Virtual anarchy reigns in the Transcaucasian and Central Asian borderlands. Tension is rising over the treatment of ethnic Russians in the Baltics, Moldova and other newly independent republics. Hyperinflation, a slump in living standards and a boom in organized crime characterize the economy. Politicians, each a self-styled savior, feud and squabble before a much abused and cynical public.


Few supposed that the demise of Communism would immediately usher in an age of stability, prosperity, tolerance and respect for the law. Even in former Communist countries with a relatively strong tradition of "civil society", such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland, the transition is proving difficult. How much harder it would be in Russia, which had to wait 1, 000 years before acquiring its first freely elected leader.


Yet Russia's turmoil is so great now that it seems only a matter of time before the strong hand of order descends once more upon the land. This does not mean a restoration of the die-hard Communist dinosaurs who continue to believe in an imperial Soviet state. Nor does it mean a lurch to the poisonous extremes of the black-shirted far right. What is more likely - and to some extent it is already happening - is that the banner of "discipline" and "Russian values" will be raised by members of the same political class that rose to power after the failed putsch of August 1991.


When men like Alexander Rutskoi, the vice president and a veteran of the Afghan War, and Pavel Grachev, the defense minister, issue public warnings that they will not tolerate discrimination against the 25 million ethnic Russians living in neighboring republics, we would do well to pay serious attention. When Yury Skokov, a little-known figure with three decades of experience in the military-industrial complex, emerges as the de facto controller of the powerful and unelected Security Council, it is time to ask whether the young plant of Russian democracy is not already being quietly pulled up by its roots.


The energetic Westemizers who have tried to reshape the country look isolated as never before. Yegor Gaidar and his fellow liberals in the government are like a U. S. cavalry unit encircled by the painted warriors of Ruslan Khasbulatov's parliament. The government's market reforms proceed in fits and starts, and are open to the populist criticism that they have impoverished millions while enriching scoundrels and gangsters.


In the Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, a last bastion of liberalism is being undermined by the clamor of those pushing for an aggressive reassertion of Russian power abroad. Witness Moldova, where Russian diplomats have been powerless to prevent the former 14th Soviet Army, aided by Cossack volunteers, from going to war in what is legally a foreign country. Or take the Kuril Islands, where the nationalists are threatening to resist with force any deal that signifies concessions to Japan.


Much depends on the tactical skills and strength of character of Boris Yeltsin. He can still draw on the reserves of popularity and moral legitimacy conferred by his democratic election to the presidency. He is still honored for his courage during the August coup. If he chooses to make a stand against the conservative "patriots" who have infiltrated Russia's power structures, then he and his allies may prove strong enough to keep them at bay. In this context, it is sad and absurd that he has wasted so much time recently on the humiliation of Mikhail Gorbachev.


For that is a sideshow compared to the all-important tasks of nurturing free institutions in Russia and making the country a neighbor to be respected rather than feared. If he fails to act, or if he compromises with the forces of intolerance, then the famous Russian troika of which Nikolai Gogol wrote will gallop off in some highly alarming directions.