PROVIDENCE, Rhode Island -- There's always a good reason to think Scott Davis won't win the U.S. men's figure skating championship.


In 1993, he was coming off a fourth-place finish the previous year. He won.


In 1994, he was supposed to lose to four-time champion Brian Boitano. He won.


This year, Davis has been hampered by a stress fracture in his back and brittle confidence, while top rival Todd Eldredge has been skating well. The winner won't be decided until Saturday, but Davis took the lead Wednesday by performing the best short program, which counts for one-third of the final score.


Davis, who is from Great Falls, Montana, and trains in Colorado Springs, Colorado, skated an energetic routine before the 7,813 fans at the Providence Civic Center. His 2-minute 40-second routine was ranked first by five of the nine judges; the other four gave the edge to Eldredge, the 1990 and '91 champion.


"It seems every year I go into nationals as the defending champion but the underdog as well," Davis said. "It's kind of worked for me."


Virtually everything worked well Wednesday for Davis, who skated to music from "Zorba the Greek." He reduced the difficulty of his combination jump from a triple axel-triple toe loop to a triple axel-double toe loop, but that didn't subject him to any deductions.


The tougher jump might have gained him a 10th of a point here or there for difficulty and made his victory easier, but he had no regrets.


"I was really happy with the performance. I had had problems with it, so it's a big confidence booster for me to be skating this well and to be leading after the short program," he said. Eldredge also simplified his routine to a triple-double. However, he made one small but noticeable stumble and that might have cost him the lead.


His marks included one 5.9 (out of 6.0) for the required elements, but he also got a 5.6. Davis' marks for both the required elements and for presentation were all 5.7s and 5.8s.


In ice dancing, Renee Roca and Gorsha Sur performed a spirited original dance to maintain their lead after two-thirds of the competition.


Roca and Sur were awarded six 5.8s for composition and five 5.9s for presentation of their version of the Quickstep, and were placed first by all nine judges.


Elizabeth Punsalan and Jerod Swallow of Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, who won last year, are second, ahead of Kate Robinson and Peter Breen of Colorado Springs.