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Many experts today are debating whether the Chinese example applies to Russia. The results of China's rapid growth are so obvious that only a small group of pro-Western fanatics has failed to notice them. The Chinese experience is not important as a source of concrete measures that Russia should or should not adopt. It is rather a strikingly clear demonstration that a realistic and pragmatic economic policy, implemented firmly and consistently but not fanatically, is capable of turning a backward and hungry country into a powerful, rapidly developing giant in less than one generation. The main result of China's economic development is that the majority of Chinese -- and therefore a significant portion of the world's population -- now live a lot better than they did 20 years ago. How many Russians would say the same?
China's dictatorial communist regime created this economic upturn. The Russian attempt to create a model democracy led to economic collapse. This is one of life's harsh truths, one close to Russian communists' hearts, but a paradox for so-called democrats who are accustomed to thinking that communism leads to economic collapse, and democracy to prosperity. China's dictatorship is far milder than it was prior to the reforms. Democratic Russia, in contrast -- where tens of thousands have perished in Chechnya, where tanks shot up the parliament, where police use torture and where those awaiting trial are infected with tuberculosis -- scores far more points for cruelty than today's communist China.
Naturally, the Chinese example cannot be used to justify phasing out democracy in Russia on the grounds that authoritarianism promotes economic development, as some close to the Russian authorities like to argue.
The fate of reform in China, plagued with numerous problems, remains unclear. It is obvious that a democratic government is more conducive to economic growth in today's world, where the majority of investors live in democratic countries. But this government must be stable, based on the rule of law and able to create a favorable climate for investment. The country must have regular elections backed by an independent judiciary and should wage decisive battle against corruption. It must make significant investments in education. Russia at present is moving in precisely the opposite direction, which means that no one has learned? from or properly understood China's experience.
Russia is objectively becoming more Asian, both in its interests and in its problems. However, no one seems willing to acknowledge this vital fact. Schoolchildren study European history and culture and learn European languages. Disregarding English, which has become an important international language, there are more schools teaching European languages like French and German in Moscow -- and in the Far East, as well, I would argue -- than those offering Chinese, even though China is one of Russia's most important neighbors.
Furthermore, Russians have a peculiar attitude toward China. Paradoxically, surveys reveal that many in the Far East would rather work with Americans, Japanese or even Germans than with their Chinese counterparts.
At the same time, the fear of China is particularly strong in the Far East. People talk of a flood of Chinese immigrants, citing completely improbable statistics in the millions. The Chinese have become whipping boys and are held responsible by clumsy and corrupt local officials for all the woes their administrations have wrought. This attitude has spread to Moscow, as reactions to the sale of Slavneft in Dec. 2002 revealed.
A strong and prosperous China is a problem for Russia. Yet this problem is Russia's problem, not China's. China is only guilty of maintaining high rates of economic growth for the last 20 years and pursuing its national interests. The question confronting Russia today is whether it will climb out of the hole the communists and pseudo-liberals dug and whether it will become free and strong both economically and politically. No one will be able to threaten a successful Russia, but if it lags behind the rest of the world, it will fall apart without any outside help.
The development of Russia's Asian regions, or two-thirds of its total territory, will not be possible unless there is a revolution in Russia's attitude toward Asia and unless we understand that economic and political partners in the East are of the same importance as those in the West.
This revolution will be impossible without a sweeping program to study the languages, history and culture of Asian countries at all levels, starting with primary and secondary schools. We will have to reform the entire Russian educational system to include Asian languages, history and culture. They should be studied just as widely in Russia as European languages, history and culture are. Such changes would not contradict the policy of nurturing closer ties to the West. They would simply mean that we have finally recognized Russia's current geopolitical realities and practical needs.
Alexander Lukin is director of the Center for East Asian Studies at the Moscow State Institute for International Relations, or MGIMO. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.
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