If Russians succeed in making it through the next two years and actually get to vote for a new president in 1996, one of the names on the ballot will be almost surely be Yury Mikhailovich Luzhkov.


Moscow's mayor is repeatedly ranked as one of the nation's most popular politicians. Luzhkov has cleverly managed to turn his opposition to radical reform into a virtue, projecting an image of a pragmatist who is not afraid to stand up to whipping boys like Anatoly Chubais, the chairman of the State Property Committee.


His image is that of a uniquely Russian politician, a strong bureaucrat who is still one of the people, a real Russian muzhik who swims in the winter and loves to play soccer.


For his part, Luzhkov denies his intentions to run for president.


Last week in an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets, he once again stated his opposition to the idea.


"I have far too full of a job now," he said. "Why would I want to take on that job?"


Don't be fooled. Luzhkov has been on the campaign trail since the beginning of the year.


His personal management of politically sensitive city projects such as the World War II memorial in Poklonnaya Gora and reconstruction at the Tretyakov Gallery are valuable political assets. Acting as the savior of the nation's monument of monuments on Victory Day was far more gratifying -- and far easier -- than repairing roads.


But my personal favorite appearance by presidential hopeful Luzhkov took place last month in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol.


On Feb. 23, Armed Forces Day, Luzhkov stood on the deck of the battle cruiser Moskva and reveled in one of the most celebrated and emotional causes of post-Soviet Russia: the fate of the Black Sea Fleet.


The newspaper of the armed forces, Krasnaya Zvezda, led its Feb. 26 edition with the story, not the usual place to find news about the mayor of Moscow.


"If there is no army, there is no state," Luzhkov told the sailors. "And everyone who helps builds the army, helps build the state."


Luzhkov concluded his speech by promising to build two large apartment blocs for the sailors.


That the mayor of a city could wind up standing on the deck of a battle cruiser pontificating on national policy vis-a-vis the armed forces is indicative of the special platform that the mayoralty of Moscow represents. There may not be anything analogous to it in the world.


So far, presidential hopeful Luzhkov has navigated a confident course between radical reformers and hardliners. But the election is not scheduled for two years. In two years in Russia, a lot can happen.





THE LONG-AWAITED INTEREST rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve turned out largely to be a non-event for the dollar, which remained virtually unchanged Wednesday. Traders said rising U.S. rates and falling German rates could mean the dollar will rally soon.


European markets were mixed, with the London FTSE-100 falling 46.2 points after retail price data disappointed financial markets. Frankfurt's DAX indexadded 19.79 points, and Paris' market was virtually unchanged.