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September marked the third anniversary of the start of the second Chechen war. Putin's generals have shown themselves unable to win it for him. No matter how upbeat the military and government reports may sound, the war goes on, the death toll rises (more than 4,500 Russian soldiers have been killed, according to official information) and atrocities against civilians continue. The situation in Chechnya is chaotic, and those Chechens who opt for collaboration with the federal authorities are continually hunted and often killed by the fighters.
Large-scale military action resumed late last month. A large group of Chechen fighters appeared quite unexpectedly in the territory adjacent to Chechnya, and in the ensuing fierce and bloody battle, at least 14 Russian soldiers were killed. The Russians lost a helicopter and an armored vehicle.
The inefficiency of the military and the incapacity of the intelligence service to fulfill its duties in Chechnya have been repeatedly demonstrated. In August, an immense military helicopter was downed by an anti-aircraft weapon just after it had taken off from a Russian air base , killing at least 119 servicemen. Whoever was carrying the anti-aircraft weapon managed to get it to the military airfield undetected. Moreover, it turned out that the whole operation was filmed by an accomplice, who was able to get inside the grounds of the air base, then escape and sell his tape to a Turkish news agency.
Putin should have serious doubts by now that the Chechen problem can be resolved by the use of force, or at least by the force that the Russian military may offer. Unfortunately, alternatives to military action, such as talks with field commanders or a gradual pullout of troops, are unlikely to make a noticeable difference anytime soon. But there does seem to be an awareness in the Kremlin that the war is at an impasse. Moreover, it is costing Russia too much -- in soldiers' lives, in unaffordable expenditures and in the fostering of nationalism and ethnic violence within the country.
Of course, whatever policy change Putin may be considering, he faces a major problem with his military, which will not admit defeat and will vehemently oppose anything that smells of betrayal by the supreme power. Putin thus needs a solid argument against the military people. The clear evidence of their poor performance appears to provide it. And if poor performance in itself is not enough, there is plenty of evidence of deceit and embezzlement, as well as the extremely low morale of servicemen. (In one recent episode, more than 50 soldiers left their unit because of severe beatings.)
Putin sent his military a warning a few weeks ago after the helicopter disaster: He issued humiliating administrative reprimands to the top generals in charge of the Caucasus region. Last week, the debate between liberal legislators and the defense ministry over the need to make the top brass clearly accountable for military expenditure was unexpectedly resolved (no doubt at the top level in the Kremlin) in the liberals' favor. Moreover, Putin has entrusted a group of liberals with inspecting the course of military reform.
All of this suggests that Putin may indeed be setting the stage for a reduction in the clout of the military. It gives some hope of a policy change in Chechnya. It is likely that Primakov has been picked as a probe on both points.
Handling the military and bringing an end to the bloody, senseless war in Chechnya are no easy tasks. Only Putin can accomplish them. He started this war. He must also be the one to set about putting an end to it.
Masha Lipman, deputy editor of Yezhenedelny Zhurnal, contributed this comment to The Washington Post.
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