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Shevardnadze Gambles on Russia

SUKHUMI, Georgia -- When Abkhazian separatists forced Georgian leader Eduard Shevardnadze and his army from this lush Black Sea province last year, the Georgian leader cursed Russia for masterminding his defeat.


He and many of his countrymen accused Russian maverick military units of training the Abkhazian and supplying arms to them in a bid to reassert Moscow's presence in the region.


Now the former Soviet foreign minister is turning back to Russia in the hope it can help guarantee the return of as many as 250,000 ethnic Georgians who fled the province as the rebels prevailed.


Last week Russian peacekeeping troops began patrolling the border between Georgia and its rebel province.


Their stated purpose is to prevent further hostilities, and Shevardnadze is hoping they can pave the way for a return of a large number of the refugees.


It is the latest gamble by the white-haired 66-year-old in the love-hate relationship between his turbulent Transcaucasian country of 5.5 million and its powerful northern neighbor.


This spring his government agreed to the controversial plan to bring in the force which Russian Defense Ministry officials say will number up to 3,000 troops. Most have already arrived.


"This is the only real alternative. It is based on the actual situation and not on emotions," said Shevardnadze recently.


But, discussion of the agreement caused tempers to flare in the Georgian parliament, with opposition groups calling it another capitulation to Russia, seen as bent on restoring its hegemony over the explosive region along its southern border.


Only a year ago, Shevardnadze too was insisting Russia withdraw all military bases and personnel from his country by 1995. But after the disaster in Abkhazia and a two-month war with forces loyal to ousted President Zviad Gamsakhurdia last autumn, he has done an about-face.


Russia helped Shevardnadze defeat Gamsakhurdia after he agreed finally to bring Georgia into the Russian-led Commonwealth of Independent States.


But the introduction of the blue-helmeted troops could backfire on Shevardnadze if a sizeable number of the refugees do not return.


The Abkhazians have agreed to allow the large-scale return of refugees only to the Gali region, an area which the Russian peacekeepers control along the Georgian-Abkhazian border.


And many Abkhazians seem to think this is already too much


Shevardnadze's invasion of the province in August 1992 was seen by them as an attempt to wipe out their tiny nation. They blame ethnic Georgian civilians for supporting his troops and are not about to agree to disrupting the demographic change which put them in the majority again.


As it has so many times before, parliament washed its hands of responsibility for the agreement by not voting on it at all, giving Shevardnadze full responsibility for its failure or success. But the wily politician has endured setback after setback during more than two years of rule in Georgia -- and he is still in power.

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