Ruling Party Sees Victory in Azeri Vote

BAKU, Azerbaijan -- The ruling New Azerbaijan Party expressed confidence that it would win a large majority in Sunday's parliamentary elections, billed as a test of President Ilham Aliyev's attempts at managed democracy, but an opposition leader claimed fraud shortly after the polls closed.

Voters at polling stations in and around the capital, Baku, said the voting itself was freer than at any election during the 12 years of rule by Aliyev and his late father, Heidar. Most local election officials appeared to be following instructions not to tell voters whom to support -- a noticeable change from previous elections.

Anti-falsification measures urged by Western governments and agreed by Aliyev just 12 days before election day -- including the spraying of voters' fingers with invisible ink to prevent multiple voting -- appeared to be having an effect where they were carried out. But implementation appeared to be patchy, with opposition observers saying that officials in some polling stations were not spraying fingers and were advising people whom to vote for.

Ali Kerimli, leader of the Popular Front, one of three parties in the opposition Azadliq, or Freedom, bloc, said Sunday night that the voting was "clearly falsified" and that opposition members of local election committees were being detained.

"These elections could not reflect the will of the Azeri people," he said. "Beginning tomorrow, we will begin our peaceful struggle within the framework of the constitution to annul the fraudulent results."

The deputy head of the Musavat party, Vurgun Eyub, said seven opposition party representatives had been detained at a polling station in the Surahani district, outside Baku, and that all opposition observers had been thrown out of 23 stations just before the polls closed.

The New Azerbaijan Party's executive secretary, Ali Akhmadov, countered that the elections had been "transparent, just and democratic" and said the opposition's claims of fraud "mean they acknowledge their own defeat."

He also said he believed his party had met its goal of winning at least 75 of the 125 seats up for grabs in the parliament.

But a private exit poll carried out by two U.S.-based organizations found the party would win 56 seats, down from the current 75. The poll, conducted by Mitofsky International and Edison Media Research, found that Azadliq would take 12 seats and the rest would go to independents and minor parties, many of them allied to the government.

Preliminary election results were to be released Monday. Final voter turnout was 46.83 percent, according to election officials.

Voting was brisk Sunday morning at a polling station in Nardaran, a devoutly Muslim village 30 kilometers north of Baku that was the scene of violent clashes between police and protesters in 2002. Groups of men and women came separately to vote, and some groups of women, dressed from head to toe in the traditional hijab, were bused in.

"Before, they used to tell you who to vote for, but not this time," said Abbas Aliyev, a pensioner. "The management of the elections is better today."

The main contest in the district was between a pro-government candidate, a local pro-Islamic community leader, and an opposition newspaper editor who was jailed after violent post-presidential election protests in 2003 and released under an amnesty earlier this year.

The editor, Rauf Arifoglu, appeared to be getting the most support from villagers, many of whom said he had visited every family in the village during the election campaign and had relayed their complaints to the authorities. Knots of men standing on the village's small Imam Husein Square said they had never seen or heard of the pro-government candidate for the district, Mehbara Jafarova.

Elmar Hudarverdiyev, an unemployed man in his early 20s, predicted that 80 percent of villagers would vote for Arifoglu, the Azadliq candidate. "He's been fighting for us for 12 years, he speaks out on our behalf. None of the other candidates does that."

Outside the polling station, interviewers conducting an exit poll for a company called Mitofsky asked voters several questions about their professions and other personal details, but said they did not know who had paid for the poll. "It's an American company," one pollster said uncertainly. "They paid for it themselves, I think."

Many voters bitterly recalled the 2002 riots, which erupted after authorities cut off supplies of gas, electricity and water to the village. The resulting violence, in which one man died and about 30 were injured, has left scars on the village that have yet to heal.

"We want to vote openly and freely, but we've lost our faith," said Gulaha Mamedov, a former factory worker who has a pension of about $20 per month.

In the Baku suburb of Shuvalan, the scene at the polling station at School No. 156 was quite different. Supporters of the government, and particularly of Aliyev's wife, Mehriban Aliyeva, who is running for parliament with the New Azerbaijan Party, were much in evidence.

Shuvalan is just 15 kilometers from impoverished Nardaran but a step up in prosperity. It can be reached by a brand-new four-lane highway built after Ilham Aliyev became president. Aliyev also has a large villa here, whose 10-meter-high walls keep out prying eyes.

Ali Alizade, a Shuvalan businessman who said he had interests in ice cream, greenhouses and fertilizers, said he had brought 50 families from his neighborhood to vote for Mehriban Aliyeva, but insisted he was not a member of any party.

"Mehriban Khanum will get 95 percent of the vote. She is running not just as a deputy, but as a future president," Alizade said. "She's ready to be president too."

Local cafe owner Dilara Hajiyeva said 95 percent was too low an estimate. "She deserves 101 percent of the votes," she said, adding that the first lady was responsible for improving the suburb's gas and water supplies.

Inside School No. 156, Abuzer Ahmedov, the only opposition party representative on the local six-member election commission, complained that a group of 300 young soldiers from a military base 10 kilometers away had barged into the polling station and that he had not been able to spray their fingers with invisible ink.

At this, a New Azerbaijan Party election official, Hasret Rustamov, hustled over. "Don't believe a word of his lies," she said. "There were no problems. We let the soldiers in just after the polls opened."