As Russia enters 1995 enmeshed in the war in Chechnya, the political scene at the center is in disarray, with most major parties forming unlikely alliances or losing prominent members.


With a parliamentary election coming in December and a presidential election six months later, next year is perceived by politicians and analysts as critical to the future of Russia.


"The year will be very hard and full of tension," Yegor Gaidar, leader of the Russia's Choice faction in the State Duma, told a press conference Wednesday. "It will largely determine whether we will be able to preserve democracy in Russia."


The statement came from a beleaguered leader who had just seen some of the best-known members of Russia's Choice quit the faction.


Gaidar, who this week broke off his three-year alliance with President Boris Yeltsin, still does not look resolute enough to some of his former allies who oppose Yeltsin's crackdown on Chechnya.


Prominent democrats Gleb Yakunin and Lev Ponomaryov, who recently left Gaidar's faction, and three other radical Russia's Choice deputies Friday joined human rights commissioner Sergei Kovalyov in Chechnya to help his anti-war effort.


Kovalyov, also a Russia's Choice member, lately has been touted by Sergei Kiselyov, the host of the popular Itogi news show, as successor to the late Andrei Sakharov in the role of "keeper of Russia's conscience." The former dissident now seems to command more authority among radical reformers than Gaidar.


When Yeltsin this week slammed Kovalyov for his criticism of Russia's actions in Chechnya, which he has branded as a policy of "government vileness and lies," two well-known reformist figures vowed to stop any cooperation with Yeltsin's administration.


They were Boris Zolotukhin, the deputy head of the Duma's legislation committee, and Sakharov's widow, Yelena Bonner. Until recently, they were both strong supporters of Gaidar's party. Gaidar, by contrast, has said he would not ask the four cabinet ministers who are members of his faction to resign their posts because, he said, "hope dies last."


Kovalyov, despite his growing authority, has in recent interviews often spoken of his desire to leave politics for full-time human rights work. He is unlikely to take on the political leadership of the group that seems ready to split off from Gaidar's mainstream faction. But the radicals, who brought Gaidar many of the votes that made Russia's Choice the largest faction in the Duma, cannot remain leaderless for long.


Next year, they will probably become yet another separate pro-reform political group, fighting the parliamentary election on their own or as part of one fragile alliance or another. That does not augur well for the democratic movement, already split three ways among Gaidar, Grigory Yavlinsky and Boris Fyodorov, who supports a policy of economic radicalism.


"We are in a situation where no one can remain absolutely clean," Fyodorov, who heads a small liberal Duma faction, said Thursday. But one of his chief rivals in the democratic camp has so far managed just that, making his political chances look strong in 1995.


Yavlinsky, leader of the Yabloko faction which includes respected economists, diplomats and corruption fighters who have not been treated well by the Yeltsin administration, has not had a long career in government. He has been consistently critical of the government's economic plans and Yeltsin's political decisions when other factions went in for convenient compromises.


According to a recent poll of 1,602 city residents across Russia by the All-Russian Public Opinion Center, Yavlinsky is the country's most trusted politician, his support running at 35 percent, far ahead of his closest contenders.


Yeltsin rated 27 percent, Gaidar 23 and ultranationalist Vladimir Zhirinovsky 15 percent.


Zhirinovsky's party has backed Yeltsin on Chechnya and voted for the government's budget proposal for next year. Zhirinovsky has explained his conformism by a desire to prop up Yeltsin who, the nationalist says, is soon likely to fall victim to a sinister foreign plot to establish a military dictatorship in Russia. A military regime would kill Zhirinovsky's hopes of winning the parliamentary election in 1995 and then the following year's presidential race.


The talk of a swing toward a military regime is not limited to Zhirinovsky's supporters. Even Gaidar has noted a shift in Yeltsin's policy toward a police state dominated by ex-KGB security services. The Communist Party, still a major political force, has warned that the Chechen operation may be the beginning of a military dictatorship throughout the nation.


"All these tanks and armored personnel carriers will come back to Moscow," predicted Communist Deputy Leonid Petrovsky, who has worked with Kovalyov in Chechnya. "You will feel their guns on you in Smolensk and Ryazan. The forces behind Yeltsin now have a pretext to declare a state of emergency."


Coup prophecies, dismissed by analysts for months, have come perilously close to being true in Russia twice -- in 1991 and 1993. However, barring another coup attempt next year, a weakened, split democratic camp will face strong hardline opposition in next year's elections. Gaidar's worries about the future of democracy in Russia seem quite justified.