Russia's unemployment rate is likely to double in 1995 but remains well below some predictions as the nation's large enterprises shy away from radical restructuring, Federal Employment Agency officials said Tuesday.


"By the end of 1995 we will have 3.6 million people officially registered as unemployed," agency director Fyodor Prokopov told reporters.


The figure, which accounts for more than 5 percent of Russia's estimated 70 million workers, is about twice the current number of officially registered jobless, which stood at nearly 1.9 million (2.7 percent) as of Jan. 1.


Experts say actual joblessness in Russia may be three to five times higher than government figures indicate. Prokopov himself admitted that accounting for "hidden unemployment" -- including people who are on forced leave or have failed to register with the agency -- the figure could be double the official rate.


By any measure, the present figure remains well below the 15 million jobless that some experts had forecast for the end of 1994 if the government had fully implemented a bankruptcy program initiated last year.


Igor Lukashov, spokesman for the employment agency, said Russian bankruptcy law had so far had little effect, since the government has not forced many insolvent enterprises to restructure and fire workers.


"This is a soft, liberal law which does not in fact work," he said. "And we hope that it stays that way, so the number of unemployed remains relatively stable."


Some analysts, however, have said a sharp jump in unemployment would be a necessary by-product of the radical restructuring that Russia's economy needs to survive.


"(Higher unemployment) has a positive element: restructuring," said one Western economist, though he added that the doubling of the jobless rate without a significant improvement in economic stabilization would be "unfortunate."