When in Holland last week, I went to visit my friends, who happen to live in a new suburban development, Diemen Noord, in the far outskirts of Amsterdam.


It was about 7 P.M. but already dark when I walked through the modern village from the station. All the windows in bungalow-type houses around me were well-lit; families were having pleasant-smelling dinners and sitting in smartly furnished dining rooms. Everything was totally idyllic -- clean, neat, cozy, REALLY NICE -- so that, not wanting to spoil the idyllic picture, I wouldn't have dared throw away my train ticket in the grass. I waited until I passed a garbage can -- a gorgeous chrome construction, something that would be stolen from the streets of Moscow overnight just for its snazzy appearance.


Anyway, while I was making my way through the Dutch middle-class paradise, passing accurately parked new Volkswagens and Mazdas, I asked myself the banal question that would occur to most suffering Russians while, tasting somebody else's discreet happiness: Is it at all possible that all this impeccable quiet NICENESS will ever spread to the place where I live? Probably not, I reckoned.


There are three basic strategic scenarios for the future of Russia.


Number One. Following the chaos of the early Nineties, market reforms and democratic trends deepen, gradually making Russia a normal capitalist country and a full-scale member of the European community. Developers of the project: Fyodorov, Gaidar, Kozyrev, Yavlinsky etc. Chances for success: 10 out of 100.


Number Two. Following the chaos of the early Nineties, a totalitarian regime of some kind -- Communist, Nazi, Orthodox-monarchist, Military-Industrial -- is established in Russia. The country is strictly controlled by the authorities and is partially isolated from the outside world. Developers of the project: Anpilov, Baburin, Rutskoi, Zhirinovsky, Ziuganov. Chances for success: 7 out of 100.


Number Three. Following the chaos of the early Nineties, there comes the institutionalization of the chaos. Nothing really seems to change in the country, which has developed a special kind of socio-economic model, well-fit for it, that may be called Criminal-Bureaucratic Capitalism (CBC). Raw resources, arms and crime remain Russia's main exports; everything else is imported.


Democratic norms and freedom of speech are tolerated -- but only to the point when they may hurt the ruling elite. Corruption and theft rule OK. Developers of the project: Yeltsin, Luzhkov, Shumeiko, Mavrodi and a cast of thousands. Chances for success: 100-10-7 = 83 in 100.


Why am I so sure that the third scenario will make it? You know, there's nothing as lasting in Russia as transitional periods.


It took us almost the whole of the 20th century to make a transition from capitalism to communism, when we stopped half-way -- then in what was called 'developed socialism' -- and turned backwards. Now, I'm sure, it will take lives of a few more generations to go back from whatever we've had to whatever we will have in the ideal future.


I almost exclude the possibility of totalitarian revival, because Russia is too dependent and too integrated in the world economic and social process. I almost exclude the quick and happy marching toward first world normality, mainly because of: a) lack of impressive leadership; b) a Catch- 22 situation regarding investments and stability.


So, the mess will go on and on and on. Entrepreneurs will make fortunes on trade and speculation and transfer it to foreign banks; government bureaucrats and nomenklatura will make fortunes on bribes and 'commissions' and transfer it to foreign banks; criminals will make fortunes by racketeering and burn the profits at casinos and auto-salons.


The middle class will be always thin, almost non-existent -- because of a lack of well-paid professional jobs and too much taxation (including the inevitable racket) for small enterprises.


The "lower class" (including millions of unemployed) will continue drinking, shuffling at flea markets and trying short luck with pyramid investment companies.


This is the future of Russia as I see it, and don't dare label me pessimistic or Russophobic -- if I were, I would simply have left the country years ago.