Kravchuk Ahead in Ukraine's Tame Campaign
25 June 1994
By Adam Tanner
KIEV, Ukraine -- Yelena Kiprova, 29, is as eager a capitalist as they come. Manager of a small art gallery here, she steadfastly courts every customer, and when she senses that interest may be flagging, she is quick to draw attention to her special cache of erotic etchings. Yet when it comes to Ukraine's presidential elections Sunday, Kiprova is decidedly conservative. She is supporting incumbent President Leonid Kravchuk, who has overseen one of Europe's most disastrous postwar economies."For now, we have remained an independent nation, but if someone else comes to power, it is not clear what will happen," Kiprova said, her prosaic words seemingly at odds with the dazzling array of abstract paintings surrounding her. "If Kravchuk stays, peace will prevail."Such support has put Kravchuk at the top of the polls as Ukrainians prepare to vote in their first post-Soviet elections.With inflation last year at 8,940 percent and wages down to a third of their value in real terms since December 1992, Kravchuk has obviously not adapted U.S. President Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign slogan of "It's the economy, stupid" -- even if statistics show some improvement in recent months.Rather, in a battle against six other candidates, the former Communist Party boss is highlighting his role as the senior statesman best able to preserve Ukrainian independence."During a time when tanks were firing on the streets of Moscow and former Soviet republics were spilling blood, the wise Ukrainian people preserved their land and homes from the great tragedy of fratricidal war," Kravchuk's main campaign poster reads. "I bow low before all Ukrainian citizens for this wisdom."With separatists in the Crimea agitating for a return to Moscow's orbit, the specter of conflict with Russia still appears very real to many citizens in this nation of 52 million -- the size of France. Many also remember Ukraine's short-lived independence after World War I which was wiped out by the Red Army.Kravchuk's two main opponents, the former prime minister, Leonid Kuchma, 55, and Oleksander Moroz, 50, chairman of the parliament, both favor closer economic integration with Russia.This platform has earned each support among the country's 22 percent Russian population concentrated in the east where Russia shines out as a model of relative prosperity. Yet some observers predict Kuchma, a former director of a nuclear missile factory, may divide his supporters with Moroz, giving Kravchuk a larger margin of victory.Talk of closer ties to Russia has also brought Ukraine's nationalists, who live mostly in the west, closer to Kravchuk.For instance, Rukh, the nationalist group which emerged as the main opponent to communism in the late 1980s, has cautiously embraced the life-long Communist, Kravchuk."He is a representative of the former powers and had done little with reform, but he is a symbol of our national identity," explained Dmitro Ponamarchuk, head of Rukh's publishing division.Kravchuk, who might otherwise be dubbed the Herbert Hoover of his day -- a reference to the U.S. president who ushered in the Great Depression -- has also been assisted by a relatively docile campaign.When the seven candidates held a live televised debate Thursday evening, no one directly attacked Kravchuk or anyone else.One candidate, Valery Babich, head of the All-Ukrainian Association of Entrepreneurs, even ceded one of his five minutes of opening remarks to offer a minute of silence to the victims of World War II."I am the only candidate to lay flowers at the monument to those who fought in World War II," he boasted.In their television appearances, as well as posters and pamphlets which are generously spread throughout the capital, candidates are offering few specifics on repairing an economy some call the basket case of Europe."I make a million a month, and I can't afford to feed my wife and family," Vecheslav Safonov, 48, a geologist, said, referring to his Ukrainian coupon salary worth about $22. He said he favored Kuchma's economic plan, but he could give no details.Many other voters are confused by the number of candidates."They are all the same, from the same party background, and now struggling only to gain political power," said plumber Leonid Yestremsky, 50, who watched the debate Thursday evening.Only one candidate, Volodimir Lanovy, 42, appears to favor a rapid move to the free market, but some voters have ridiculed him for promising an average monthly income of $500 between 1996 and 1998.None of the candidates is likely to emerge a clear winner after Sunday's ballot, experts predict, because the top candidate must have more than 50 percent of all votes cast. If necessary, a run-off will be held in two weeks.In addition to presidential elections, Ukrainians on Sunday will elect thousands of local officials, from the new mayor of Kiev to village representatives. According to the chairman of the election commission, a total of 215,814 candidates are seeking office on all levels.
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