Once again American forces are storming into the desert of northern Kuwait, nearly three years after their triumphant withdrawal after Operation Desert Storm.


However, their withdrawal did not signal the end of the war in the Persian Gulf. It is now clear that the spectacular tactical achievement of liberating Kuwait with minimal coalition casualties did not solve the strategic problems in the region. And the Americans have only their military and political decision makers to blame.


In 1991, the coalition air assault on Iraq lasted too long -- 47 days. By the time the coalition ground forces began their attack, Iraq's army was already on the run and many allied blows fell on positions that had already been abandoned.


Iraq's Republican Guard tank divisions slipped away from the allied pincer attack, as did crack troops in the Euphrates and Basra areas. As a result, Saddam Hussein had enough of an army left to quell the subsequent Kurdish uprising in the northern mountains and Shiite rebellion in the southern marshlands..


At the end of Desert Storm, it became clear that the Americans had neither a plan for further action nor the political will to improvise.


In early March 1992, the Americans could have finished off Saddam in a week. But General Norman Schwarzkopf was too busy boasting of his great victory, which -- in reality -- was slipping through his fingers. At a press conference Feb. 27, 1991, Schwarzkopf said, "As of today, we have over 3,000 confirmed destroyed Iraqi tanks. And I do mean destroyed or captured." That figure turned out to be less than 1,000.


Last week the Iraqis proved they can still concentrate the crack armored units of the Republican Guard on the Kuwaiti border considerably faster and -- what is more important -- much more cheaply than the Americans can respond. That is why people in Washington have been talking about a possible preemptive air strike.


But taking out entrenched tank divisions from the air is a difficult task. After all, in 1991, the Americans could not destroy the Republican Guard after 47 days of air strikes. Moreover, such an attack would be seen by many in Moscow as blatant American aggression.


For the last three years, the United States has been waiting for Saddam to disappear by himself. Now, once again, the Clinton administration has no idea what to do. Probably it should send in Jimmy Carter. Maybe he could persuade Saddam to take off for Katmandu.





Pavel Felgenhauer is defense and national security editor for Segodnya.