A United Nations study has predicted that Russia will face no dire food shortages this winter, but that Moldova, Armenia and Tajikistan could come close to famine while the situation in the Baltic states will be "desperately bad".


The study was compiled for the U. N. Food and Agricultural Organization by a private company, Sovecon. It forsees a dramatic worsening of diets in the former republics, with 50 to 80 percent of the average family budget spent on food.


A detailed account of the study was printed in the newspaper Izvestia on Tuesday, which said that Kazakhstan was the only former Soviet republic to have surplus food supplies, in particular grain. Russia will have to import 3 million tons of grain from Kazakhstan this winter alone.


None of the other former Soviet republics will be able to provide for themselves, the paper continues, not even the Ukraine, which was once known as the Soviet Union's "bread basket".


Moldova, Tajikistan and Armenia, the republics that for years received large quantities of grain and fodder from Moscow, will face the harshest conditions, perhaps verging on famine, according to the study.


The situation in the three Baltic states was described as "desperately bad". Latvia has already appealed to the United Nations for urgent food aid. The Baltics, which were largely responsible for the Soviet Union's cattle breeding, received almost all their fodder centrally. Most farms there are expected to go bankrupt by spring.