Russia's dwindling birthrate and climbing infant mortality will lead to a sharp drop in the preschool population within the next two years, Education Ministry officials have said.


By 1997, the number of children aged 3 to 6 will drop by 26 percent, while school-aged children between 7 and 9 will dwindle by more than 12 percent, Interfax reported.


But while educators are concerned about the statistics, they are reluctant to consider the trend permanent.


"We are taking every possible measure to preserve our preschool system," said Raisa Gorba, head of the ministry's preschool division, who is reluctant to close any of Russia's kindergartens, in spite of declining enrollment.


"It is not such a bad thing to have fewer children enrolled in each school," Gorba argues. "Besides, the drop in the birthrate is a temporary factor."


Indeed, while the vacant kindergartens are now feeling the effects of the first years of post-Soviet instability, national birthrate statistics have leveled off. In 1994, for each 1,000 people there were 9.6 births -- still considerably lower than the 12.1 births per 1,000 in 1991, but slightly more than the 1993 figure. Ministry officials are waiting to see whether the rate will edge up again in 1995.


Similarly, infant mortality rates are less drastic than they once appeared. From 1992 to 1993, mortality rates rose from 18 to nearly 20 deaths per 1,000 live births. Part of the reason for the hike was the fact that the Health Ministry changed the definition of a live birth in 1993, an official from the World Health Organization said Thursday.


"Under the Soviet system, any child who weighed less than a kilogram at birth and died within seven days was not even considered a live birth," said Dr. Remis Prokhorskas of the World Health Organization. Since January 1993, a child showing any signs of life is factored into the mortality statistic.


While Russia's current statistic of 18.6 infant deaths per 1,000 births is three times greater than the European Community's rate, it is a great deal lower than in CIS countries such as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where infant death rates are 37 and 43 respectively.