Issue 4353. Last Updated: 03/20/2010

Big Stakes but Little Sway With Pyongyang

By Nabi Abdullaev

Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, right, arriving for a Security Council meeting Monday.
Seth Wenig / AP

Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, Vitaly Churkin, right, arriving for a Security Council meeting Monday.

Shortly after North Korea tested a powerful nuclear bomb on Monday, the Primorye region deployed a team of meteorologists to check radiation levels in the air.

They had good reason to be nervous. The underground test was carried out less than 100 kilometers from the Russian region's border with North Korea.

No increase in radiation levels was detected.

But if a nuclear test were to go awry, Russia arguably would have more to lose than any other country as radioactive fallout contaminated its rich forests and, worse, sickened the already dwindling population in the Far East.

At the same time, however, Moscow holds the least clout of any of the six countries involved in talks aimed at curbing North Korea's nuclear ambitions, Russian security analysts said Tuesday.

"It seems that Russia's only resource in dealing with North Korea is its veto-wielding power in the Security Council," said Alexander Khramchikhin, a researcher with the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, a Moscow-based think tank.

The United Nations Security Council gathered Monday to unanimously condemn North Korea's nuclear test as a blatant violation of a resolution passed after the country's first nuclear test in 2006. That resolution and accompanying sanctions demanded that the Communist regime abandon its nuclear program and refrain from any activity related to developing ballistic missiles.

Defying international condemnation of its latest nuclear test, North Korea test-fired two missiles Tuesday, stepping up its brinkmanship with neighbors and global powers.

France called for new sanctions against North Korea at the Security Council meeting, while the United States and Japan insisted on unspecified strong actions. Russia — which for several years has worked to soften international pressure on Pyongyang — also condemned the test, with its UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, telling journalists in New York that the council would move quickly to draft a new resolution.

But given the self-isolation of the North Korean regime and the North Korean people's unflappability despite previous sanctions, it would be pointless to expect a new UN resolution to convince Pyongyang to step away from its nuclear program, said Gennady Yevstafyev, a retired military lieutenant general and a nuclear expert at the PIR Center.

Russian diplomats on Tuesday demonstrated an understanding of the limited means that the international community has to forcefully press Pyongyang into doing anything.

Seeming to backtrack on his earlier comments, Churkin, the UN ambassador, said in televised remarks that Security Council resolutions "are not the best way to solve the problem" and called for a continuation of the six-party negotiations involving North and South Korea, Russia, China, Japan and the United States.

Unidentified Foreign Ministry officials were quoted by Interfax as saying North Korea could be coaxed back to the negotiating table and that Moscow would not impose any unilateral sanctions on Pyongyang.

Yevstafyev said North Korea has forcefully pushed itself back into the international spotlight with the test and was now in a position to seek international security guarantees for its regime and economic aid.

Just as in the case of Iran, which also is purportedly vying to obtain nuclear weapons, the primary country that can offer security guarantees is the United States, not Russia, Yevstafyev said. The little economic assistance that Russia could offer pales next to that of China, South Korea, Japan and the United States, he said.

"We don't even sell them any weapons," said Khramchikhin, the Moscow researcher, comparing Russia's potential to influence Pyongyang with Moscow's efforts in Iran, whose air-defense system strongly depends on Russian arms sales.

On Tuesday, the Russian government announced that it had postponed trade and economic cooperation talks with North Korea slated for Thursday and Friday. Regional Development Minister Viktor Basargin decided not to travel to Pyongyang for the talks for "technical reasons," officials said.

The military dismissed any national threat related to North Korea's latest missile tests, Interfax reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified official with the General Staff.

He said Russia's air defense in the Far East, equipped with S-300 missile systems, would intercept any foreign missile approaching the border with an accuracy rate of 90 percent.

Seven North Korean missiles landed in the Sea of Japan about 100 kilometers south of the Russian cities of Vladivostok and Nakhodka during testing in July 2006. One of the missiles reportedly failed after 42 seconds and veered from its initial trajectory.

The Russian military estimated that yield of the latest nuclear blast was 10 kilotons to 20 kilotons — comparable to the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The bomb was tested some 80 kilometers from the Russian border.



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