The bizarre events of last week did a good deed for political pundits and forecasters, if not for Russian foreign policy. President Boris Yeltsin's condemnation of Andrei Kozyrev, then his clumsy retraction of it, signposted the date of the Foreign Minister's demise with all the subtlety of a presidential handshake.


It is pretty clear by now that Kozyrev will bow out on Dec. 18. The scenario goes like this: Kozyrev beats Lyubov Zhirinovskaya (sister of Vlad) in a not very close fight and is re-elected as Member of Parliament for Murmansk.


He then announces that, faced with a choice whether to take his seat or not he has opted to be a deputy and resigns as foreign minister. Yeltsin, hand on heart, says that he regretfully accepts the decision. Honor is satisfied all round.


The only unusual thing about this chain of events is that it has been flagged so far ahead of time. There are still two months for the most deadly political intrigues to be played out.


Let's imagine that Yeltsin takes the time to talk over the possible candidates with his foreign affairs adviser Dmitry Ryurikov. The president wants about five names. What will Ryurikov say?


Ryurikov could start by offering up himself. He is not a bad option at all, a professional diplomat with a very sharp brain, he could be handy in handling the tricky business of building ties with Iran and then reassuring the United States about them. He speaks both Persian and English and was Brezhnev's interpreter in the Shah's Iran. He would pass the loyalty test for a president, who wants his own man in the Foreign Ministry.


But Yeltsin would probably say no to Dmitry. He needs an older, more experienced man. Ryurikov also has one other black mark against him. His daughter is married to U.S. foreign policy adviser Dimitri Simes. Not a good recommendation for someone who has to be seen enforcing a new tough Russian foreign policy.


So how about Vladimir Lukin? The former ambassador in Washington and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee wants the job, no question about that. But he is an independent spirit, stoutly opposed to Yeltsin on a number of issues.


Lukin only has one chance of getting the job and that is if Yabloko does stunningly well in the elections. In that case Yeltsin might decide it is time to co-opt the party's support. It has not escaped the president's attention that Yabloko needs to be dealt with and with his sharp political antennae, he found some kind words for the party last week. But the new minister must be someone more loyal.


So how about the ambassador in London, Anatoly Adamishin? Adamishin's stock shot up last month when he was summoned to play tennis at the Big Hat tournament in Sochi at virtually a moment's notice. He barely had time to pack his tennis racket.


The normally cautious Adamishin, first deputy foreign minister until last year, had just written a personal memo to the president condemning Kozyrev and his policies. That may have been the moment that Kozyrev's luck finally ran out.


Adamishin is a heavyweight diplomat, easily up to the job. But maybe the president does not want a Foreign Ministry insider. Maybe he wants a new face with a new set of instructions dictated in the Kremlin?


The next name on the list, Vitaly Ignatenko, would be a good outsider. His credentials as a new broom have been strengthened by his heading a government commission that criticized the running of the Foreign Ministry. He has been near the top of Russian political life for a long time, as Mikhail Gorbachev's press secretary and then head of the TASS news agency. What he lacks is specific experience in foreign affairs or proficiency in any foreign language, a desirable qualification for becoming foreign minister.


And so we come to Yevgeny Primakov. The head of the Foreign Intelligence Service has impressive credentials -- he was Gorbachev's special emissary to Iraq before the Gulf War, a skilled negotiator, he is already a member of the Kremlin Security Council. But, according to one source, he was offered the job in February and turned it down. Primakov is 66, a fairly venerable age to take on a job as stressful as Russian foreign minister.


The list has run out and none of the candidates is a surefire winner. No peace for the candidates, but a lot more fun in store for the pundits.