The first of several scheduled hearings on curbing excessive speculation opened in the United States on Tuesday, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission recommending strict limits in order to keep financial firms from amassing giant positions that contribute to volatility and create price bubbles.
Big buyers of oil, such as airlines and municipal power companies, have complained that last year’s surging oil price —which hit a high of $147 per barrel in July — was driven by speculation, rather than supply and demand, and severely affected their profit margins. Other proponents of market controls point out that oil prices nearly doubled this year, going from a low of $44 per barrel to a high of $73 per barrel, despite a massive economic slowdown and data that consistently show overflowing stockpiles.
In Russia, however, the debate on measures that could keep down oil prices takes on a special urgency. Oil income constitutes a third of budget revenues and affects everything from budget projections to the value of the ruble to the stability of the economy.
Wide swings in oil prices have wreaked havoc on plans for the federal budget. When Prime Minister Vladimir Putin presented a revised budget for 2009 in March, it was based on an oil price of $41 per barrel. The previous budget forecast $95 per barrel, while next year’s plans for $55 per barrel.
“It’s hard to predict how oil prices will behave, but it’s easy to say what will happen to the economy,” said Yevgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at Trust National Bank. “At $70 per barrel, everything is good, at $50 it is still acceptable, at $40 it is tolerable and at below $30 per barrel the economy is in trouble.”
The proposed curbs in speculation may have some effect on volatile oil prices, but it may be limited, Nadorshin said. Prices for Urals crude, Russia’s main export blend, are more closely linked to Brent rather than to the WTI contracts traded in the United States, and therefore would not fall drastically if U.S. regulations were imposed.
Others predict that the regulations would have beneficial effects for the country’s oil-dependent economy.
“The limitations will not fundamentally change oil prices but can influence their dynamics,” said Viktor Markov, an analyst with Zerich Capital Management. “There will be no drastic ups and downs, and the fluctuations will become smoother,” he said. “Economies can be adjusted to any price but are always damaged by sudden jumps.”
The price for crude is unlikely to increase significantly in the near term, but regulations could make it less volatile, said Danila Levchenko, chief economist at Otkritie. “Economic recovery is inevitable, and oil prices are likely to grow gradually. But we shouldn’t expect them to top last summer’s high. That’s just not reasonable,” he said.
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