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Inflation fell to an 18-month low in June, even as statistics showed the economy sliding deeper into recession during the last quarter.
The rate of inflation fell for the third straight month, down to 11.9 percent last month from 12.3 percent in May, the Federal State Statistics Service said Monday, as consumer demand withered under the economic crisis and a stronger ruble made imports cheaper.
Inflation in the first six months of 2009 was 1.3 percentage points lower than the 8.7 percent rate in the same period last year. The rate has averaged 14 percent per year since Russia defaulted on its loans in 1998.
The Finance Ministry forecasts inflation of 13 percent to 14 percent this year, and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in March that he expected the rate to slow in the second half of 2009. But other top government officials, including Kremlin economic aide Arkady Dvorkovich, have said it could rise to as high as 15 percent.
In June, Central Bank chairman Sergei Ignatiyev told Vladimir Putin that he expected inflation to be “significantly lower” than the 13 percent predicted by the Economic Development Ministry.
Falling prices could prompt the Central Bank to cut interest rates further, Ignatiyev told Putin.
The Central Bank has lowered its main interest rates twice since
April 24. The latest cut last month brought the rate down to 11.5 percent from 12 percent.
Meanwhile, statistics released Monday by Capital showed an economy that was continuing to slump, as gross domestic product shrank to an annual 6.4 percent after a 5.4 percent decline in the first three months of the year.
Analysts attributed the drop in inflation to a “decrease of monetary mass” resulting from a low rate of monetary distribution into the economy by banks.
“Despite government measures, the economy is still suffering from monetary hunger, as money is being disbursed in slow mode and banks continue consolidating their reserves,” said Nikolai Podlevskikh, head of the analytical department at Zerich Capital Management.
“Banks and other market players need to be sure that stabilization is coming and the situation is under control,” Podlevskikh said.
