Issue 4353. Last Updated: 03/20/2010

Inflation in April Drops To 13.2%

Bloomberg
The country's inflation rate fell more than expected in April as the stumbling economy slowed price growth and the effect of the ruble's devaluation waned.

The rate dropped to 13.2 percent after rising in March to 14 percent, the State Statistics Service said in a statement Tuesday. Consumer-price growth slowed to 0.7 percent in the month, compared with 1.3 percent in March.

Food price growth slowed to 0.6 percent in the month from 1.7 percent in March, according to the statement. In the year, the rate eased to 14.5 percent from 23 percent in April 2008.

"Inflation is set to fall dramatically in the coming months," opening the door for further rate cuts by the Central Bank, said Vladimir Osakovsky, senior economist at UniCredit, who expects an annual rate of 9 percent for the year. The devaluation has given way to "broader deflationary effects in the economy. Consumer demand is slowing, investment demand is practically nonexistent."

The Central Bank cut its main interest rates for the first time since 2007 on April 24 and indicated that it may continue to reduce them as inflation slows and the recession in the world's biggest energy exporter deepens.

Tatyana Orlova, an economist with ING, said there could be a second interest rate cut by the end of the month. Still, a "new bout of ruble weakening" was possible toward the end of the year, deterring the Central Bank from deep rate cuts that could encourage investors to bet against the currency. "Rates won't be slashed considerably," she said before the numbers were released.

The ruble advanced against the dollar to 32.78 on Tuesday, from 32.80 on Monday, close to its strongest since Jan. 27. It added 0.2 percent to 43.87 per euro from 43.98 on Monday.

Those movements left the ruble little changed at 37.77 against its target basket, which is comprised of about 55 percent dollars and the rest euros



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