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Ukraine's Leader Wants More Powers for Tough Fall

KIEV — Allies of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych feel that they have a good case for pressing for constitutional changes to boost his powers.

Any political fallout from swallowing unpalatable IMF medicine — including sharply raising domestic gas prices — will require a strong executive hand, so the argument goes.

And though no one foresees street protests in Ukraine in the fall, when a 50 percent rise in gas prices hits central heating costs, general discontent might require some smart handling before important local elections scheduled for late October.

So Yanukovych's allies in his Party of the Regions have renewed efforts to get curbs on presidential powers lifted, a move that would consolidate his grip and move the country back toward presidential rule similar to that in Russia.

Undeterred by an early defeat in the parliament, they have now turned to the courts to rule that the 2004 limits, which gave increased powers to the parliament and greater independence to the government, were unconstitutional.

"It's a bid to get the president independence from various political groupings, from the parliament, from the need to conduct negotiations, to negotiate deals. It would free the hands of the president," political analyst Yury Yakimenko said.

Apparently poised to secure a $14.9 billion International Monetary Fund loan to stabilize its economy, Ukraine does not need a return to the confrontation among the branches of power that bedeviled the previous presidency of Viktor Yushchenko.

Infighting then led to the IMF suspending disbursement of billions of dollars of credit and ultimately doomed Yushchenko's chances of re-election.

Yanukovych's prime minister, Mykola Azarov, has given public assurance that his government will abide by its commitments to the IMF. But agreeing to the IMF's demands, particularly in reforming the chaotic finances of the state-run energy firm Naftogaz, has not been easy for the new leadership.

Illusion of Stable Gas Prices

The influential weekly Dzerkalo Tyzhdnya reminded Yanukovych of how last April he sought to "sell" a deal with Russia for cheaper gas supplies in exchange for extending the lease of the Russian Navy in a Ukrainian Black Sea port.

"Let's recall the joy with which the president announced that gas prices for citizens would remain stable. This illusion has very quickly evaporated," Oleksiy Mustafin wrote.

Coming to terms with the IMF conditions has put pressure on Yanukovych's power base, and the moves to boost his authority, which have only partial support inside the Party of the Regions, have complicated relations with Azarov himself, analysts said.

Many commentators now openly talk of Azarov, 62, being forced to quit later this year.

"By October, the population will be asking questions. Then we will see changes in the government and possibly in the leadership of the government," Yakimenko said.

On Oct. 31, voters will elect local legislatures and mayors in elections that will test the Party of the Region's strength of support and give people their first chance to pass public judgment on Yanukovych's first months in power.

The implication is that Yanukovych might choose to make Azarov an eve-of-election scapegoat if he feels that the mood of the country is running against him.

Turning Back the Clock

Many analysts see a re-alignment also taking shape behind the scenes of powerful forces, many in the gas sector, who supported Yanukovych's election campaign this year and whose wealth and influence sustain him in office.

These include billionaire industrialist Rinat Akhmetov and tycoon Dmytro Firtash, a former middleman in the trading of gas from Russia who many say has strong allies in Yanukovych's camp.

Some analysts, for instance, point out that Akhmetov would have little to gain from a reduction in Soviet-era subsidies, which have kept domestic gas prices artificially low for years.

On the other hand, Firtash, who runs several regional heating companies, has much to gain.

Yanukovych's critics fear a return to the autocratic days of Ukraine's second post-independence president, Leonid Kuchma.

"The danger of an authoritarian tendency growing has to be considered. With a president who enjoys full powers and a majority in parliament, what would be his relationship with the opposition and the free press?" said analyst Oksana Mitrofanova.

But it is neither in the interest of the parliament nor of the government for Yanukovych to accumulate more power.

And Yanukovych's allies may finally fail in their appeal to the Constitutional Court since any ruling in the end needs the final blessing of the parliament.

Yanukovych says he wants to restore strong ties with Russia that were damaged by the anti-Russian policies of Yushchenko. But he adds that integration into the European mainstream remains a major strategic goal.

He listens to competing voices as he treads this fine line.

Against this background, rises in gas prices and other unpopular austerity measures such as reforming the bloated national pension system suggest a stormy political fall ahead.

"It will be tough not because society or the opposition will rise up or because people will protest against the rise in prices. [This] fall will be a rough one inside the regime. There will be conflict between the gas speculators and industrial barons," analyst Viktor Nebozhenko said.

Yanukovych, a towering man, showed some nifty touches despite his bulk as he gyrated on the dance floor at a lavish bash to mark his 60th birthday this month.

He and his entourage may have to show even more fancy footwork later this year.

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