The Future of the Nation With Putin at Helm

The victory of Vladimir Putin in the elections has elicited a dual reaction here and abroad with regard to the future of Moscow's foreign policy. Will it be tough or more moderate? Will the Kremlin expand its ties only with the East, or with the West, or will it limit them in general?


There is no doubt that the main direction of Russian foreign policy - the mutually advantageous cooperation with all countries on the principles of peaceful coexistence, without interfering in their internal affairs - will remain its cornerstone.


As was publicly announced Monday by Igor Ivanov, the foreign minister, "corrective measures will be introduced" into Russia's foreign policy, given various changes in the world, the results of the presidential election and the new concept of Russia's foreign policy, approved at a meeting of the Security Council two days before the election.


Vladimir Putin himself outlined in brief his future foreign policy immediately after preliminary voting results were announced Sunday. He said he wanted to make that policy honest, with a realistic analysis of regional and global conditions, and "without miracles."


In the article "Russia on the Eve of the Millennium" in December and his open letter to the voters in February, Putin has stated that Russia will strive to form a conception of a multipolar world; to broaden the attempts of various governments to strengthen global security; to cooperate on control of nuclear and conventional weapons; to prevent and regulate regional conflicts, including participation in international peacekeeping operations in the fight against international terrorism and the drug trade; and to be integrated in the global economy and strengthen interaction with international economic and financial institutions.


While he was acting president, Putin stressed that the Kremlin would base its foreign policy on the foundation of national interests and at the same time counteract attempts to ignore those interests by others. There was also an allusion to the fact that Russia might have "zones of vital interests."


In the opinion of Russia's second president, although Russia has ceased to be an empire, it has not lost its potential as a great power. Putin clarified that he defines derzhavnost not in terms of the country's being powerful militarily, but in its ability to be a world leader capable of defending its national interests.


The key words that Putin uses in describing his foreign policy are caution, sober consideration, watchfulness, clear formulation of tasks and realism.


Putin's international contacts will grow. This year a meeting of the G-8, the Group of Seven leading industrial nations plus Russia, is scheduled for July in Okinawa, Japan. Separate talks will be conducted with leading Western nations (including Britain, the United States, Germany) and East (China, India, Japan). There may be a new meeting with the leadership of NATO, with which there are still differences of opinion. There will be further talks on global problems linked to the implementation of international agreements such as NPT, ABM, FMCT, CFE, START and various proposals on the creation of nuclear-free zones. The hypothetical possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia will be no greater than it would be by other nuclear powers, and it would only be used against outside aggression.


Moscow will neither allow others to interfere in its internal affairs nor to dictate conditions for how it will act at home, including how it should react to attempts to pull the country apart through large armed uprisings, separatism and terror.


Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski said the election of Vladimir Putin was a "good sign" for Russia, Europe and the rest of the world. How Putin performs in the area of foreign policy will become clear in the near future.


Vladimir Kozin is a senior adviser in the Foreign Ministry's European Cooperation Department. The views expressed here are not necessarily those of the Foreign Ministry. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.