Economic growth in Russia will likely be swifter than expected this quarter, with gross domestic product rising 3.5 percent from the last quarter of 2009, according to RenCap-NES's leading indicator, released Wednesday.
The figure was revised up to a seasonally adjusted 3.5 percent GDP growth, up from an earlier estimate of 2.8 percent.
The revision was driven by strong performance in retail service, which the researchers said jumped 7.3 percent in seasonally adjusted terms in December, and some "sharply increased" Russian Economic Barometer indexes, which are a survey of economic conditions taken by firms throughout the country.
For growth in the second quarter, the indicator shows a more modest 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter growth.
The report also estimated that real GDP this quarter would rise 7.4 percent year on year, and that second quarter growth would be 8.1 percent year on year.
"Until recently, the recovery of the Russian economy has been fragile, in particular in manufacturing," RenCap economist Alexei Moisseyev said Wednesday in a report presenting the indicator.
But the most recent official data "have started to show signs of improvement," he said. The indicator projects an annualized 14.8 percent quarter on quarter growth in the first quarter, and that "suggests that recovery might well be on a solid footing."
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.