New Role For Russia in Diplomacy

Whatever jealousies may have been aroused by Russia's new, high profile in settling the conflict in former Yugoslavia, one thing is clear: In the course of a few weeks, the combination of an aggressive NATO and a fully engaged Russia have achieved more for peace in Bosnia than two years of negotiations.In announcements by the U.S. State Department and NATO, one can hear the tone of irritation at Moscow's diplomatic coups in securing a Bosnian Serb withdrawal from Sarajevo and getting Serb agreement to open the airport at Tuzla. Both successes appeared to ride on the back of NATO's get-tough policies and to steal its thunder.But these are petty jealousies. Russia has played an indispensible role by giving the Serbs a way out of their tight corner. The aim of the United Nations, after all, is to achieve a workable peace in Bosnia, not to defeat the Bosnian Serbs. That task would require a far greater commitment in blood and money than the West is ready to make.


Whether NATO leaders like it or not, Russia's diplomatic intervention has allowed the Western alliance to achieve its goals at virtually no cost.


For the government in Moscow, too, Vitaly Churkin's successes in Bosnia have had a tremendous payoff. For the Kremlin is, perhaps for the first time since August 1991, seen to be vigorously pursuing Russia's interests abroad. That has stolen much of the nationalist platform away from people like Vladimir Zhirinovsky.


Russia's recent announcement that it is planning to join NATO's Partnership for Peace program also signals that Russia, while insisting on being included as a major player in international security matters, does not want to do this in competition with the Western powers.


But all sides should be on notice that in they have been lucky so far. The United States and NATO have emerged as the unembarassed defenders of Bosnian Moslems over the past month, while Russia has taken up the corner of Bosnia's Serbs. Until now this dynamic has been a success, but it is fraught with risk.


The history of the world, and of the Balkans in particular, offers far too many examples of what can happen when the great powers pick sides in local conflicts.


A war between Russia and NATO is not in the cards here, because Russia is in no military or economic state to take on the combined power of the West. But just one serious misstep in the balancing act that Moscow and NATO are performing in Bosnia -- a shootdown of Serbian aircraft that goes wrong, or a misadventure by Russian peacekeepers in the field -- and we could be back in the Cold War.