According to a recent newscast, Arkady Volsky, head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and co-chairman of Civic Union, presented the Russian president with a draft for the composition of a new cabinet. This news, aired by the "Ostankino" television channel, caused quite a stir.


Volsky himself greeted the news with surprise, calling it a "provocation". The story is even circulating that it was Yeltsin's men who organized the false information, hoping to cause friction between Volsky and the head of state.


Talk of an imminent change of government has become routine. There are leaks to the effect that the Civic Union has already agreed with Yeltsin on the names in the cabinet to be replaced. This also could be a "provocation" or idle speculation, but the president himself, after all, at a session of the Supreme Soviet, publicly named ministers with whom he was dissatisfied.


But perhaps the main grounds for talk of a possible change in the cabinet of acting Minister Yegor Gaidar has been a political sence. The present government has not made the best use of its "honeymoon". Any major national upheaval, like the events of August last yfear, temporarily creates chaos in society. This is the best time to introduce unpopular measures of the type conceived by Gaidar's team.


But this period ended in Russia last April. By then, there were already forces that could put organized pressure on those in power, or even aspire to replace them. First and foremost, this concerns directors of enterprises. There is nothing surprising in the fact that those who officially control almost all of the property of the state should aspire to political power. The fact that Leonid Kuchma, director of a large defense plant, has become prime minister of Ukraine is just one proof of this. Shortly before his appointment Volsky met with the president of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, in Kiev, but these events are perhaps totally unrelated.


It is interesting that in Moscow not one of the leaders of Civic Union, the organization that most completely reflects the concerns of the industrialist's movement, has aspired to become prime minister. Too many practically unsolvable problems would come crashing down on a new cabinet, which would, in practice, hardly be able to implement a substantially different policy.


A more rational political move would be for the Civic Union leaders to receive key positions in Gaidar's government. Many opposition leaders, while demanding a coalition cabinet, consider it imperative to leave the present prime minister in place. Such a "coalition" government would give real power to the industrialist's lobby, while leaving full responsibility with Gaidar.