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Today's paper. Last Updated: 06/04/2012

Yasin Says Robust Ruble Set to Persist

Economics Minister Yevgeny Yasin said Thursday the Central Bank's policy of devaluing the ruble in line with inflation is no longer necessary and predicted the currency would remain relatively robust for several months.


Yasin also put official monthly inflation in April at 8.5 percent, and said the Central Bank should cut its refinancing rate to commercial lenders.


"The policy of dollar growth in line with the inflation rate has outlived itself," Yasin told a news conference. "We have to move over to a policy of a stable exchange rate or perhaps even slightly decreasing the value of the dollar."


Since the beginning of the year the Central Bank has guided the ruble's descent by trading in the currency markets, but Yasin said recent stability without government or Central Bank intervention "is the first signal that the efforts to achieve financial stabilization are beginning to pay off. Now the Central Bank can hardly hold the ruble down."


The ruble has lost more than 30 percent of its value since the beginning of the year, but its descent has slowed somewhat in the last month and has remained stable at 5,130 to the dollar for the last three trading days.


The government has kept money supply low this year with M2 -- a measure including cash and bank deposits -- growing by only 3 percent in the first quarter, according to official figures.


Yasin said the official inflation rate for April was 8.5 percent, citing figures from Goskomstat, the state statistics committee.


The situation differs greatly from January, when monthly inflation hit a 12-month high of 17.8 percent. Then the market had a huge supply of rubles and demand for dollars was high.


"I expect that over the next few months the rate will be stable, more or less," Yasin said. "There may be fluctuations, but it will hover around the present rate and the dollar may even fall a little."


Yasin also said the Central Bank's refinancing rate -- now 200 percent annually -- should be cut, since interest rates on the interbank market are much lower. Currently, interbank refinancing rates vary from 151 percent for one-day credits to 130 percent for 90-day credits.


"The huge gap between the present refinancing rate and the credit interest rates prevents the refinancing rate from being a real factor in the economy," Yasin said.




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