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Today's paper. Last Updated: 06/01/2012

Turkmen Prosperity Beckons but Eludes

ASHGABAT, Turkmenistan -- The gold-toothed woman in her flowery headscarf looked despairingly at the mouth-watering displays of fruits and vegetables, cuts of meat, pots of golden honey and spices.


Well-laden marble stalls in the central market are a sign of wealth in this former Soviet republic. But, three years after independence, many people are struggling to make ends meet, and President Saparmurat Niyazov's dream of creating a new Kuwait is a long way from reality.


People say living standards have only improved slowly,and very few would openly criticize Turkmenbashi (Chief of the Turkmen), as the ex-communist leader Niyazov is known.


His image adorns the colorful manat currency, and just about every public building in the country.


But declining output and rising prices show he is not all-powerful.


"You should speak to the traders about their prices," snarled the woman at the market as she cast an angry sideways glance at visiting journalists.


The average monthly wage in the Central Asian republic is about 1,000 manat -- equivalent to $100 at the official exchange rate but less than $10 at more realistic street rates.


As elsewhere in the former Soviet Union, market prices, at three manat for a single egg, are clearly beyond the reach of pensioners struggling to survive on 500 manat a month.


Official inflation figures were not available, but traders said some food prices had risen sixfold in the past year.


Niyazov has transformed Turkmenistan since independence. Under Soviet rule, it was one of the poorest republics, living off handouts from the central budget.


After independence, revenue from gas and cotton sales started flowing to Ashgabat, instead of Moscow, stirring hopes of prosperity.


But these hopes have been dashed as other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, notably Ukraine, fail to pay for their gas supplies.


"Our debtor-partners in the CIS are not hurrying to pay for gas, first because they cannot, second because they don't want to -- old habits," Niyazov told Itar-Tass.


The payment problems have helped to push the manat down since the start of this year to 10 to the dollar from about two. "If Ukraine paid for our gas, it wouldn't have fallen," said Seyitbay Kandymov, chairman of Turkmenbank, one of the country's biggest commercial banks. "We have the resources, but we are unable to sell them."


Independence day celebrations on Oct. 27 were crowned with a ceremony that might solve this problem and replenish state coffers -- inauguration of a $7 billion gas-export pipeline from Turkmenistan to Europe via Iran and Turkey.


Actual construction of the pipeline has not started, and questions remain over financing, but Niyazov clearly wants to reduce dependence on Russia's pipeline system and find new export markets.


Turkmenistan, a country of only 4.2 million people, can produce about 80 billion cubic meters of gas a year. It also boasts rich oil deposits, and is a major cotton producer.


Foreign investors have been drawn to the republic by its vast resources -- 2.9 trillion cubic meters of proven gas reserves, or 2.1 percent of the world total, according to the authoritative BP statistical review of world energy.


The most active investors are Turkish firms, which have signed some $1.2 billion worth of contracts. Marble stalls at the marketplace were typical of the veneer of prosperity created by Niyazov, who is adored in a Soviet-style personality cult.


However these outward signs of wealth are misleading. Industrial production fell 33 percent in the first half of 1994, compared with the same 1993 period, according to CIS statistics.


Government and Central Bank officials were not available for interviews during the week-long holiday period, and basic economic indicators are tough to come by at the best of times. But people interviewed on the streets appeared content.


"Of course things have become more expensive, but it's not as bad as Moscow," said Faya, 39, a Russian born in Ashgabat. "The only thing that gets to me is the heat."


Others complained about the lack of convertibility of the manat, introduced a year ago. "It's okay here, but when we travel it's worth nothing," said Valya, a housewife.


"We can use the manat here, but it's silly that we can't go anywhere with it," a pensioner said.


Others praised Niyazov for the many new buildings that have sprung up, including a new international airport, a mosque, a digital telephone exchange and a baby-food factory, inaugurated during the independence anniversary.


"Look, the city has been transformed," one resident said. "The whole place is marble."




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