Vneshekonombank dollar paper has risen 13 percent since mid-August, helped up by speculation that Moscow and its commercial bank creditors were getting closer to agreement.
"I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think we are talking about a very hollow bubble. I am confident there will be no deal this year," one senior bank trader said.
There are also signs that there may be little progress on Paris Club talks with official creditors -- whose outcome Moscow has linked to commercial negotiations -- until late this year.
Banking sources said a technical meeting of commercial creditors was due Wednesday but it was unlikely to bring an agreement much nearer.
The two sides remained apart especially on the issue of the maturity of a restructured deal, with banks balking at Russian demands for 25 years. "It surprises me that a lot of people think a London Club deal is now more possible but I can't see it," one Russian debt specialist said.
"From the Russian point of view there is no rush to make concessions," he added. He and others warned that if the mood turns then prices could well drop back from their current $0.325 cents on the dollar.
"Prices are at a situation where if they rally much further it would be better to be short," one bank analyst said.
Some traders said Russian interests had buyers at $0.30 or lower which had helped the latest jump in prices.
As Russia moves toward a sensitive election period, the government was unlikely to want to get involved in making concessions to creditors, some analysts said.
But another said there was a slim chance of at least getting the outline of an agreement settled before the close of the year if Moscow was prepared to water down slightly its demands.
The issue of a Paris Club deal with government creditors is also up in the air.
Officials said Paris Club creditors had been due to meet Sept. 18 but this had now been put off until Oct. 16.
Russians were unlikely to be involved in those talks until near the end of the year, one said.
A Message from The Moscow Times:
Dear readers,
We are facing unprecedented challenges. Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated The Moscow Times as an "undesirable" organization, criminalizing our work and putting our staff at risk of prosecution. This follows our earlier unjust labeling as a "foreign agent."
These actions are direct attempts to silence independent journalism in Russia. The authorities claim our work "discredits the decisions of the Russian leadership." We see things differently: we strive to provide accurate, unbiased reporting on Russia.
We, the journalists of The Moscow Times, refuse to be silenced. But to continue our work, we need your help.
Your support, no matter how small, makes a world of difference. If you can, please support us monthly starting from just $2. It's quick to set up, and every contribution makes a significant impact.
By supporting The Moscow Times, you're defending open, independent journalism in the face of repression. Thank you for standing with us.
Remind me later.