Russia's New Club Med

Exemplary relations between European states" is how Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov described things between Russia and Greece last week, while his Greek colleague Theodoros Pangalos was in Moscow on an official visit.


It is certainly true that Russia's leaders meet with Greek leaders more frequently than those of any other European country. It seems permissible to speak not only of a high level of understanding between Moscow and Athens - in no small way influenced by the arms trade - but even of a kind of political alliance, all the more unique considering Greece's membership in NATO.


During Pangalos' visit, security issues were high on the agenda, and much of the talk was about the recent tender held in Athens for the supply of ground-to-air missile systems to Greece, in which the Russian S-300 system lost out to the American Patriot system. The contract prize of $1.2 billion went to the U.S. company Raytheon.


But Russian defense manufacturers didn't do badly in the end, because the Greeks purchased a large order of the "Tor-1" short-range missile system worth $700 million.


Pangalos gave assurances that the choice of the American system was a purely technical matter, and not a sign of compliance to U.S. exhortation, and he indicated that Greece is ready to buy other systems from Russia.


A week before, aspects of setting military cooperation between the two countries in motion were raised by Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev while on an official visit in Athens. This visit passed so cordially that observers began to speak of the creation of not just a political but an informal military alliance between Russia and Greece and Cyprus. A formal alliance is out of the question due to Greece's membership of NATO, and because Cyprus is currently doing everything possible to ensure its acceptance into the European Union. This hope would certainly be crushed by any such formal bond with Russia.


Nevertheless, while Sergeyev was in Greece there was talk of a formal alliance between Moscow and Nicosia, mainly stirred up by a number of Cypriot newspapers claiming that the minister had sent a letter to his Cypriot counterpart proposing a military alliance between Russia and Cyprus. This letter broached such possibilities as creating a joint military training center on the island, military supply dumps and so on, Cypriot media reported.


Nor were matters helped by the Russian Defense Ministry's refusal to either confirm or deny the existence of such a letter, causing international agitation that the Russian Foreign Ministry has now tried to dispel. As the Turkish press instantly seized upon the reports, ministry spokesman Vladimir Rakhmanin slammed them as "unfounded and provocative" and said that they are stoking speculation of Russian expansionism toward Cyprus and throughout the eastern Mediterranean as a whole.


Rakhmanin concluded that the reports were part of some underhand plot to thwart the controversial delivery of Russia's S-300 defense systems to Cyprus, now expected to occur in November.


In Athens, Sergeyev was also silent about the existence of any such letter to the Cypriot Defense Ministry. But as for military and political guidelines in the region, he was explicitly clear in his statements that Russia has a wide spectrum of long-term interests in the eastern Mediterranean and that this area is regarded as a main source of risks and hazards, including militarily. "Russia also has political and economic interests in the zone, and has every possibility to enter into full-scale development of cooperation with Greece and Cyprus," said Sergeyev. "We regard it as essential to assist Cyprus to maintain its military potential at a level that will not allow another side to achieve military superiority and dictate its terms or even commit an act of aggression."


In any case, by turning to Russia to acquire advanced weaponry, Greece is reshaping the political realities of its region. And Moscow is now intent on using these realities to its advantage, having for various reasons lost its traditional Mediterranean allies, Egypt, Libya and Algeria. If the Soviet Union's alliances in the region were designed to counter the presence and influence of the United States, then Russia's contemporary geopolitical advances primarily concentrate on potential buyers of Russian armaments, which, in addition to Greece and Cyprus, includes Syria and Armenia.


It is no coincidence that while Sergeyev was in Athens he announced his intention to make an official visit to Syria in the near future. Relations between Syria and Turkey have continued to deteriorate of late, with Turkey threatening Syria with military strikes if it fails to comply with its demands to stop supporting Kurdish rebel forces. In such circumstances Sergeyev's intention to go to Damascus will be interpreted as a gesture not just of Russia's solidarity with Syria, but Greece's too.


It is not surprising that the Russian Defense Ministry's statements have drawn protests from Ankara. Although Russia's Foreign Ministry is playing the Turkish reaction down as exaggerated, Sergeyev's remarks - which are by no means impromptu, but rather the result of prior consideration - map out very clearly just what alliances have now emerged in the eastern Mediterranean: On one side Russia supports a bloc of Greece, Cyprus, Syria and Armenia, and on the other, grouped around the United States, are Turkey, Azerbaijan and Israel.


And the fact that these alliances are cemented by arms contracts rather than formal agreements suggests that they will be all the more durable.


Alexander Shumilin is an international observer for the Kommersant publishing house. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.