Russia Pushes Cyprus

When President Boris Yeltsin earlier this month received Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides in the Kremlin, the two men avoided discussing the main question at hand -- the issue of just when the C-300 anti-aircraft missiles that Russia is contracted to supply to Cyprus will be delivered to the divided island.


"This is not a question for presidents," Yeltsin's foreign affairs assistant, Sergei Prikhodko, told journalists, emphasizing that "there are no inconsistencies between Moscow and Nicosia." He added: "The skies above Cyprus are clear as before," that is, the possibility of a new military buildup by Cyprus and the feuding powers standing behind it, Greece and Turkey, is practically ruled out.


A closer look reveals that Russia and Cyprus are very much at odds as to when the missiles will be shipped to Cyprus.


"The decision that all components of the C-300s will be delivered to the island has been taken in Cyprus, and Russia has been informed about it. For understandable reasons, however, I cannot make more precise the delivery date," Clerides told journalists.


On the same day, July 14, a representative of Yeltsin's administration was quoted as saying: "The conditions of the Russian-Cypriot contract will be observed and delivery of the antiaircraft missiles' first components will begin in August."


The paradox is that the Cypriots themselves "informed" Moscow about their wish to delay delivery of the C-300s until at least November while the Russian side is stubbornly repeating August as the delivery date.


Before the visit, it was common knowledge that Clerides was going to Russia to secure from Moscow an agreement to postpone the delivery of the C-300s until November.


A meeting of the Cypriot government and the National Council, the consultative organ to the president in which leaders of all the nation's parties are represented, was held, during which a decision was taken to ask Russia to delay the delivery of the anti-aircraft missiles, at least until November. This decision was also coordinated with Cyprus' backers in Greece.


Nicosia's decision to request that Moscow delay delivery is entirely logical: The "rocket scandal" is beginning to get out of hand, in Cypriots' opinion, and the time has come to stop it.


If something is not done now, then further aggravation of tensions surrounding Cyprus will inevitably lead to significant damage to the island's tourist industry -- its main source of revenue -- and could ultimately result in an outbreak of armed hostilities between Greece and Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean.


The contract for the delivery of Russian-made C-300s to Cyprus brought a negative reaction from Turkey from the very beginning. Ankara thinks that placing anti-aircraft missiles on the island will change the strategic balance in the eastern Mediterranean in favor of Greece and the Greek Cypriots, which in turn will create a security threat for Cyprus' Turkish community.


Ankara has repeated that it will not permit the missiles to be installed on the island and if that does happen, that it will resort to aerial bombardment of the missile installations.


At the same time, the United States and the European Union have stepped up pressure to convince Nicosia to back away from the deal with Russia.


The situation has become strained to such a degree that in the minds of Cypriot politicians, the moment Russian missiles are installed on the island practically means the beginning of military action.


Yevgeny Ananyev, the general director of Russia's arms exporter, Rosvooruzheniye, added fuel to the fire when he stated in April that his company is ready to begin delivery of the C-300s as early as July or August.


Nicosia did not comment on this statement, a clear sign that it wanted to avoid aggravating the row over the missiles just as the tourist season was heating up.


But fighter plane squadrons from Greece and Turkey have recently visited their respective sides of the island, in a further sign of the military tensions.


What is at issue here are national interests and national pride. Doesn't Cyprus, as a sovereign state, have the right to acquire, in this case from Russia, defensive systems that it considers necessary to maintain its own security? Isn't a third of the island occupied by the Turks? Greek Cypriots are simply exercising their right to self defense.


But the Turks are also exercising the same right to self-defense, warning that they will not allow the installation of the C-300s on the island, and even promising air strikes if their threats are ignored. To back up their saber-rattling, six Turkish F-16 fighter planes recently conducted exercises at Israel's Shdema training base with the aim of developing ways to effectively counteract the C-300s if they should be installed on Cyprus. The Turkish pilots destroyed their targets at the first attempt.


Russia is not seeking to aggravate the tension surrounding Cyprus. But here is the problem: For Rosvooruzheniye, the missile contract with Cyprus has become its distinctive "visiting card," an object of pride for the civilian defense workers who make the sophisticated missile systems.


Moscow is sure that if this contract is successful, it will create the necessary advertising for Russian military technology and allow it to penetrate the European arms market. It is no coincidence that Greece has also expressed a desire to acquire the C-300 system. Athens is set to make a decision soon on whether to give the contract to the Russian system, or to the U.S. Patriot antiaircraft system.


With Cyprus increasingly inclined to go slow on the missile deal, and Russia pushing hard for it to happen as soon as possible, the two countries have some tough discussions ahead.


The standard protocol remarks at this month's meeting of the Russian and Cypriot presidents in Moscow were uttered not so much to confirm both sides' mutual understanding and close economic cooperation as to create a diplomatic fig leaf, under which the two counties can find the optimal way out of a difficult situation.


Alexander Shumilin is a staff writer for Kommersant Daily. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.