The Soviet nuclear submarine Komsomolets, which sank in the Norwegian Sea in 1989 and is resting beneath 1,700 meters of water, is quickly becoming not just a Russian problem, but a global one. It is estimated that as early as next summer the submarine's two nuclear torpedoes will break open, each spilling 3,200 grams of plutonium-229 from their warheads. Nearly 50 years of atomic testing on the island of Novaya Zemlya in the Barents Sea has produced only 100 curies of plutonium there; by contrast, the torpedoes of the Komsomolets contain 430. In a very short time, the leaking material will be consumed by plankton and begin making its way up the food chain.


If this happens, a radioactive zone of several thousand square kilometers will form around the Komsomolets. The area's rich fishery will be contaminated for the next six or seven centuries and it is anticipated that sea currents will actually bring the radioactivity right to Russia's shore. The plutonium has a half life of 25,000 years and is 10,000 times more toxic than arsenic.


All of these are the general conclusions reached by Russian Defense Ministry's Scientific Research Institute, as well as by Norwegian and Dutch investigative commissions. "It is difficult to overestimate the consequences of this catastrophe on the region's fisheries," reads a report by the Russian Federation's Fisheries Committee. "Losses over the next five years are estimated at 3.5 trillion rubles at 1993 prices."


The Russian government's initial solution to the crisis was to try to hermetically seal (? la Chernobyl) the vessel in order to contain the leakage. Representatives of all the concerned ministries signed on to this plan and, in July, a special expedition to the Komsomolets was mounted. However, this mission failed to seal the leak.


The torpedo tube openings are closed, but a dangerous threat is posed by the roughly 15 large and small openings that have formed in the warhead casings. This summer's expedition managed to only partially contain this problem. The current in the area runs as high as 1.5 meters per second, freely washing radioactive material out of the warheads. As a result, the primary goal of the $7 million expedition -- to contain the radioactive contamination -- was not achieved.


The decision to seal the vessel came on the heels of a determination by representatives of 29 government ministries, agencies and other bodies that the Komsomolets cannot be raised. A Dutch consortium that signed a $220 million contract to raise the submarine backed out after studying the problem and learning the true scope of the damage to the vessel. No other takers have been found. This incident helped fuel the myth that the submarine cannot be raised; however, many specialists consider this premise to be mistaken.


The latest solution to the crisis is also a product of this myth. It has been decided to cut off and raise the forward section of the vessel with its nuclear torpedoes. The vessel itself, with its reactor and its nuclear fuel, will remain on the sea floor for future generations to worry about.


The "beheading" of the Komsomolets is scheduled for the summer of 1995. It will be carried out by the Academy of Science's deep-sea research vessel Academic Keldysh and the Mir diving apparatus. In March, a representative of the Emergency Situations Ministry signed a contract to buy a "guillotine" from a Dutch company for $25 million.


The years under water have not passed without leaving traces on the vessel's arsenal. Scientists confirm that the action of the salt water has turned these weapons into two mines, conventional and nuclear, that are set to explode. Vibrations or rough handling may well set them off.


The "beheading" will inevitably produce such vibrations, and it is equally inevitable that one of these mines will explode. If it is the conventional one, the ship's radioactive materials will be scattered throughout the area; if it is the nuclear one, the entire expedition will be destroyed. Such an explosion would produce a "Chernobyl at sea." This is how the Komsomolets could revenge the arrogance of those who underestimate the danger.


Many critically minded specialists consider this solution to be irresponsible and compare it to the decisions that led to the destruction of the Aral Sea, the creation of Chernobyl, the pollution of Lake Baikal and other projects that turned whole regions into ecologically contaminated zones.


These specialists argue that the Komsomolets must be raised. This is the only solution that will really solve the problem of the radioactive material in both the torpedoes and the reactor for all time. Moreover, raising the vessel will provide invaluable experience for other such operations: The Soviet cruiser K-219 with 50 nuclear warheads lies on the sea floor off the Bermuda Islands, and scientists estimate that more than 100,000 containers of radioactive materials litter the world's oceans.


Because the raising of the Komsomolets has been considered "impossible" for so long, not enough research has been done to develop strategies for raising it. However, one group of Russian scientists has developed a general three-stage plan. The first stage involves removing the nuclear and conventional torpedoes without raising the submarine itself. In the second stage, the nuclear fuel would be removed from the reactor. The final stage calls for the lifting of the submarine itself, which would led to the recovery of many valuable materials including six thousand tons of titanium.


Independent experts put the cost of each stage of this operation at between $8 million and $20 million. It is essential to respond to this pending environmental catastrophe immediately. Efforts must be made to draw other European countries into the project. The combined efforts of Russian and foreign specialists can find the solution that has eluded government ministers and bureaucrats.


Alexander Kurchatov is a retired colonel and president of a non-profit environmental research group. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.