"The decision which we are being forced into will mean war, more unhappiness and more suffering." That statement from French Foreign Minister Alain Jupp? is a fair summary of what will happen when, as now seems just a matter of time, the United Nations withdraws its troops from Bosnia.


What would likely happen in addition, Jupp? said, is that the entire Balkan peninsula would be "set ablaze" as fighting reignited in Croatia and spread to the Albanian enclave of Kossovo in Serbia, to Macedonia and beyond.


This is an appalling prospect, the result of rapacious Serbian aggression and of a hopelessly divided and incoherent international policy on how to handle the conflict. And it may be too late now to do anything about it.


In theory, the United Nations is in charge of the international presence in Bosnia. But increasingly, international policy has become a two-headed monster as Europe, together with the United Nations, attempts to contain the conflict while the United States, together with NATO, tries to help the Bosnian Moslems win the war. The Americans, unfortunately, appear to have won the day.


"Unfortunately," because although Bosnia's Moslems certainly deserve to win, to reclaim their land and their multi-ethnic country, this is not a real option unless there is massive intervention on the ground by an outside power. This will not happen in the near future. In the meantime, the Bosnian Serb army would be free to overrun the enclaves of Srebrenica, Bihac and the rest, with all the bloodshed and horror that entails.


Only after this horror might there be outside intervention, probably from Moslem countries rather than the United States. And where this might lead is anybody's guess, although there are several extremely bloody Balkan wars to draw from as historical precedents.


At this point, there is little else to do but make a desperate appeal for one last effort at finding a political resolution to the conflict before the UN troops leave. The goal should be limited: to draw an acceptable map that would stabilize the front lines, reduce casualties and make a complete end to the war at least possible at a later date.


Perhaps now, as the prospect of a withdrawal of UN forces grows, the Bosnian Serbs can be persuaded that they, too, face a dreadful 10 or 20 years unless they find a way to end this war soon. The outlook for the Bosnian Serbs is not good in the Jupp? scenario. They would have to fight on multiple fronts against increasingly well-armed opponents.


Bosnia's Serbs have no shortage of weapons. But who would support them financially to fight a rapidly escalating and expensive war? Russia? Don't bet on it.