Russia may have averted a cutoff in credits by international lending agencies with a decision to liberalize oil exports, but industry sources ruled out any big jump in export volumes this year.


Western economists have said that a government resolution scrapping oil export quotas and licences was a rare victory for the liberal reformist camp in the government, led by First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais.


The resolution, ending months of debate and fierce lobbying behind the scenes, introduced alternative controls based on export tariffs and "fair access" to pipelines and ports depending on output.


It still leaves ample scope for bureaucratic manipulation and could favor the big Russian producers at the expense of smaller firms and foreign joint ventures.


"It's not perfect, but it's the first good news in a policy sense that we've had for a long time," said one economist.


Russian reforms have been on the ropes in recent months, with lobbying groups chipping away at government budget proposals that now look further damaged by the Chechnya crisis. Conservatives are also making inroads into the government, as witness President Boris Yeltsin's appointment Thursday of a communist as justice minister.


The oil export decision was a setback for certain powerful oil industry and trade groups that had profited from the old system of quotas and licences.


These included oil-rich regions and special interest groups, such as Afghan war veterans, who previously received export quotas in lieu of cash in a system that many analysts believed was inefficient and open to corruption.


"The resolution sharply increases the chances of Russia receiving major financial help from the International Monetary Fund," Izvestia quoted a senior Economics Ministry official as saying.


"In effect, Chubais won a major victory by having a decree that doesn't have domestic quotas," a Western economist said.


The IMF and the World Bank had put strong pressure on the government to reject a draft version of the resolution, which would have forced producers to supply up to 65 percent of output to domestic consumers.


The lending agencies argued that such a system would have undermined economic reforms and limited both exports and government revenues from oil taxes. Oil is Russia's biggest foreign-exchange earner.


Last year's crude-oil exports outside the former Soviet Union totaled about 89 million tons, up 7 percent from 1993, according to preliminary official figures.


But industry sources said the new resolution, which takes effect once it is published, would not result in significantly higher exports because of limited pipeline capacity.


Total export pipeline capacity is only 100 million to 120 million tons, but most spare capacity is on the Druzhba route to Eastern Europe, where low demand has slowed pumping.


Oil industry sources said exports of refined oil products would be restricted by tariffs, to be adjusted according to seasonal factors, and needs of the domestic market.


The resolution also leaves in place the system of "special exporters," whereby all oil exports must go through a limited number of authorized companies.


"It's not a terrific decree, but it's not bad when compared to what we thought was going to happen," a Western economist said.


"There are a lot of questions as to the extent to which it'll be implemented in a transparent way, with a minimum of funny business."