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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/27/2012

New Signs of Rift in Ruling Tandem

In the latest tit-for-tat among the ruling tandem, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Wednesday seemingly lashed out at President Dmitry Medvedev for inhibiting government work by sending wrong signals about next year's presidential vote.

But both Putin and Medvedev denied talk of a rift, and one analyst said the world was witnessing "a smokescreen of massive proportions" aimed at antsy politicians and business leaders seeking clues about who would be in the Kremlin next year.

"Neither I nor Dmitry Anatolyevich rules out that each of us can stand in the election," Putin told reporters after a medical conference in Moscow.

"If we now send out some nervous signals, half of the administration and the bigger half of the government will stop working because they expect some change," he added.

Putin's comments came a day after Medvedev reiterated publicly that he did not rule out running for a second term. A decision will be made "very shortly" because the election is less than a year away, he said in an interview with Chinese state television, according to a transcript posted on the Kremlin's web site.

By contrast, Putin warned against rushing to a decision. "We have almost one year to go until the elections, and this topic does not allow us to organize work in a normal way," he said.

He added that "all should hoe their own piece of land like St. Francis," referring to St. Francis of Assisi who according to legend said he would continue to cultivate his garden even if he found out that he would die soon.

Medvedev sought to play down talk of friction with Putin, stressing in the Chinese television interview that he had friendly and warm relations with the prime minister. He said both wanted prosperity for the country but differed over the methods to achieve this.

"This is what democracy is all about. This is what competition is all about. I have my own opinion, but someone else might have a slightly different one," he said.

His words were echoed by Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who denied that Medvedev's comments amounted to a serious rift between the two.

"The main thing is that they have common views on strategic questions. Regarding tactics, each can have his own perceptions," Peskov told Russian News Service radio late Tuesday.

But Putin and Medvedev have been sparring publicly more and more recently. When Putin last month likened the call for armed intervention in Libya to the medieval crusades, Medvedev retorted that the term "crusades" was unacceptable in this context.

Peskov later said Putin had expressed his personal opinion.

Leaders of the liberal opposition have spoken of a dangerous tug of war between Medvedev and his long-standing mentor Putin.

Georgy Bovt, a co-leader of the Right Cause party said Putin's motivation to return as president was probably weaker than Medvedev's to stay. "It is a very complicated configuration," he said by telephone.

Bovt's party, which is pro-business and has Kremlin support, last fall became the first group to publicly advocate a second term for Medvedev.

But many analysts say the tandem's public sparring is just political show.

"What we are seeing at the moment is a smokescreen of massive proportions," said Alexei Mukhin, head of the Center for Political Information, a think tank.

Mukhin and others argue that while Medvedev remains loyal to Putin, behind the scenes there is growing nervousness between the two camps — one of which supports the more conservative Putin, the other the more liberal Medvedev.

The nervousness, Mukhin said, is also reflected in United Russia's reaction to Medvedev's interview.

A leading functionary suggested that Medvedev should only run if this is agreed with Putin and if he is a candidate of United Russia. "Our party leader is Vladimir Putin, and if he says he will stand for president, he will be our candidate," said Oleg Morozov, a first deputy speaker of the State Duma and member of the party's supreme council.

"If the leader of our party and the leader of our country agrees that Dmitry Medvedev will be the candidate, then United Russia is the country's only political force he can rely on," Morozov said in comments on the party's web site.

Putin is United Russia's leader, but neither he nor Medvedev is a party member.

United Russia has performed poorly for its standards recently, winning only an average 46 percent in last month's regional elections.

While Medvedev's popularity trails Putin's in most opinion polls, the number of Russians who would prefer Medvedev's name on next year's ballots has risen lately.

According to a Levada poll conducted last month and released Wednesday, 18 percent preferred Medvedev, up from 14 percent last October. The number of those who would like Putin stood at 27 percent in March, down from 31 percent in October.

But pundits' opinions on who will become president in 2012 differ widely.

While many suggest that Putin will continue to wield influence either as prime minister or in another post, Mukhin said both Putin and Medvedev would probably stand back and support the candidacy of Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Naryshkin.

"This will dissolve the current dissonances," he said.

Stanislav Belkovsky, an independent analyst and former Kremlin insider, said he expected that Medvedev would be re-elected and that Putin would then trade political office for an international post like head of the International Olympic Committee. "Putin does not need political clout. All he wants is international recognition," Belkovsky said.

Staff writer Anatoly Medetsky contributed reporting.





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New Signs of Rift in Ruling Tandem

@font-face { font-family: "Times New Roman"; }p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal { margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 12pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }table.MsoNormalTable { font-size: 10pt; font-family: "Times New Roman"; }div.Section1 { page: Section1; }             The scenarios put forward for the 2012 presidential election are beginning to look like an attempt to identify all possible scripts — which may be a sure sign that no one has any idea what the denouement of this chapter in neo-Soviet Russia will be.  For starters, no absurdity can top the fiction that a person can lead a group without being a member of that group, unless we're talking about a teacher leading a class of children of which the teacher is not a member.  Whatever lunacies swirl around this "guess-who-is-running" period of Russian history, I can think of one more fruitful scenario that maybe, just maybe, no one else has thought about.              Consider that the opposition, generally a liberal lot, has not generated one ounce of traction among the citizenry.  They suffer from a list of political problems, not the least of which is that they have no respected standard bearer.  This is not to say that the Liberal movement has no respectable leaders in their ranks.  In fact, their numbers are populated by several men of heroic qualities who would make excellent presidents.  It's just that they are victims of airwaves they don't control (airwaves the opposition does control), and a populace still anchored in an authoritarian mind-set.  So what is their winning strategy?             They make Medvedev their candidate.  They march for him and they debate for him, and they get him elected.  In the process, we might expect a number of magnificent outcomes.  1.) Medvedev will unavoidably be pulled strongly toward the liberal camp.  2.) Liberals will now have a political base to stand on and speak from, and 3.) As suggested in an earlier editorial, a two-party system may be given birth in the process.  Russia may find itself, all of a sudden, with a new system of free political plurality, in which voices of change and innovation could now be heard and respected.              How better to work toward a 2018 that sees a Nemtsov or a Ryzhkov running for President?  Paul Shelton pgshelton@w-link.net

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