MOSCOW -- Russia's inability to deliver a "yes" from the Bosnian Serbs to a peace plan for Bosnia marks a setback for Moscow in the Balkans.


But the damage to prestige is likely to be limited by the fact that Western countries are also running out of ideas and have little stomach for military action.


Moscow is signaling that it will stick with the consensus in the five-nation "contact group" with the United States, Britain, France and Germany. Only Russia can claim real influence over the Serbs, who see Moscow as their protector and friend against the West.


While opposition Russian nationalists see the Orthodox Serbs as blood brothers in the Balkans, policymakers here are aware that tying policy too closely to Serb interests could be a recipe for disaster.


In the past, Moscow's lines to Belgrade and the Bosnian Serb capital Pale have given it a crucial role in negotiating partial agreements such as the Serb withdrawal from around Sarajevo.


But this week's trip by Defense Minister Pavel Grachev and special envoy Vitaly Churkin showed the limits of Moscow's influence. Despite extra incentives offered by Grachev, the Bosnian Serbs still balked at the contact group's plan to divide Bosnia in half.


Moscow's eagerness to deliver a "yes" from the Serbs was shown by President Boris Yeltsin's decision to send Grachev -- who has indicated sympathy for the Serb position -- as well as Churkin on what turned out to be a fruitless mission.


Izvestia newspaper wrote this week that Russian leaders were now paying the price for persuading the rest of the world of the strength of their "special relationship" with the Serbs. "They cannot come to terms with the obvious fact that the 'Orthodox brothers' are only willing to listen to advice" from Moscow "when it suits them." But official comments here suggest Moscow is determined to stay in step with the rest of the contact group and confident it will avoid being forced into backing radical punitive measures against the Serbs.


"Our position is that an essential condition of a settlement is the agreement of the world community on a united position," Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Demurin said Thursday. "Russia has always sought this unity and this is the line we will follow in the future."


However, Churkin made clear he did not expect penalties to go beyond a tightening of UN sanctions against Belgrade and moves to expand the creation of "safe areas" in Bosnia.


He said there would be no discussion this weekend of lifting the arms embargo against the Bosnian Moslems.


"From the beginning it has been clear that nobody is going to propose lifting the embargo either at the Geneva meeting or immediately after it. Nobody is seeking that now and nobody is ready for it," Churkin said.


Russia, France and Britain all have a strong motive for caution over the use of force against the Serbs because of worries about the safety of their UN protection forces contingents.


Russia's loud commitment to the unity of the contact group has a double meaning, diplomats say. It is afraid that the United States, which has no ground troops there, could be tempted to act unilaterally on the arms embargo.


In the longer term, if the contact group fails to stay united and the Bosnian conflict spins out of control, Russia may pay a high price. Senior policymakers fear nationalist pressures in parliament, where pro-Serb sentiment is strong, could suck Moscow into a Cold War-style proxy conflict with the West.


Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev told the Wall Street Journal last month that he was worried about the risk of Bosnia turning into "a classic client-patron type of confrontation" in which Washington would arm the Moslems and Russia's parliament would retaliate by lifting UN sanctions on rump Yugoslavia.


He said Yeltsin did not have the power to veto pro-Serb moves by parliament for more than a limited period.