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Today's paper. Last Updated: 05/29/2012

IMF to Press On With Russia Loan Offer

WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund will press ahead with talks next week with Russia on a $12 billion aid plan despite some doubts about Moscow's reforms following a Cabinet shake-up this month, monetary sources said.


But the sources, who declined to be identified, said the IMF intends to stick to its tough line that Russia must make more progress in putting its finances into better shape before obtaining the money. "There's got to be some correspondence between the degree of our support, the extent of the risk we're taking and their efforts," one source said.


So far, that tough line seems to have the backing of the United States and other rich industrial nations which are the major shareholders in the IMF.


The $12 billion package the IMF is discussing with Russia would be its biggest for any single country and would be its last chance to provide President Boris Yeltsin with financial support ahead of elections next year.


The package would consist of a "stand-by" loan of up to $6 billion to support economic reforms and a $6 billion fund to stabilize the value of the Russian ruble against the dollar.


Some Russian officials have voiced doubts about trying to peg the ruble-dollar rate and instead have suggested allowing the country's currency to fluctuate within a fairly narrow band.


The ruble crashed by more than 20 percent on Oct. 12, although it quickly recovered. Stung by the currency's politically embarrassing collapse, Yeltsin engineered wholesale changes in the government and the Central Bank earlier this month.


Many of policymakers with whom the IMF had held preliminary negotiations in October have since left the government, replaced by a mix of conservatives and reformers.


International monetary sources said it was too soon to say how the new team will work out, but they voiced hopes that First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais, an arch-reformer, will play a leading role in shaping economic policy.


Russia's new finance and economics ministers last week defended the government's tough program to slash inflation and cut the government budget deficit. The 1995 draft budget, which will be the focus of the upcoming negotiations between the IMF and Russia, envisages a deficit equivalent to 7.8 percent of gross domestic product.


It also promises to reduce monthly inflation to 1 to 1.5 percent by the second half of next year.


International monetary sources said IMF experts believe that the budget overestimates the amount of tax revenues the government will be able to collect next year. As a result, they estimate that the budget deficit will be closer to 10 percent of GDP.


Russia may also be overestimating the amount of money it can raise to fund its deficit through the domestic issuance of government debt, sources said.




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