Illness Said To Be Cause For Alarm

Boris Yeltsin's latest illness has cast doubt on more than his own political future. With rumors flying, politicians maneuvering, and analysts, diplomats and journalists holding their collective breath, the general consensus about what happens next is alarmist.


"The situation is unpredictable," said Alexander Konovalov, analyst at the U.S.A. and Canada Institute. "As always in Russia, almost anything could happen."


Mikhail Leontiyev, political observer for the daily newspaper Segod situation blows up," he said.


At stake are the parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for December and June, respectively.


According to Yeltsin's doctors, the president will be under constant care at least until the end of November. This, however, is unlikely to substantially affect the course of the parliamentary election campaign, say analysts. The Dec. 17 ballot will proceed as scheduled, with or without Yeltsin.


"His absence will have almost no influence on the parliamentary elections," said Leontiyev. "It will guarantee that the campaign will be free of the kind of improvisation that Yeltsin is capable of."


But observers agree that the state of Yeltsin's health will have serious consequences for the presidential elections, now scheduled for June 1996. With Yeltsin weakened, physically and politically, by this second attack, his chances of a victory seem more remote than ever.


Many experts express the view that Yeltsin's advisers, fearing for their own safety under a new regime, will do almost anything to avoid losing the June ballot, including cancelling the elections and imposing a state of emergency.


"Under a living president, even if he is only technically alive, the presidency is more an institution than a single man," said Leontiyev. "Those around Yeltsin may well decide that they can still have the power of the institution, even if the president himself is unable to function."


In Leontiyev's estimation, the president's aides would be pushed to such desperate measures only by fear that they would be called to account for the "crimes" of the Yeltsin regime: the destruction of the Soviet Union, the storming of the parliament in 1993, and the privatization of resources and industry.


"Look at all the attention that surrounded the appointment of a prosecutor general," he continued, referring to the 18-month fight between Yeltsin and the Duma over confirmation of a candidate for the job of the nation's top law enforcer.


"In principle, this should be a secondary position. But those in the executive branch are afraid of ending up in a cell, and they want to make sure that the occupant of the post is not going to put them in prison."


The new prosecutor, Yury Skuratov, seems "controllable," said Leontiyev, but it may be too soon to tell. "I am sure that a great deal of thought was given to the choice," he added.


Cancelling the elections would rob Yeltsin of any pretense of legitimacy, said Leontiyev, forcing him into authoritarian rule.


"The president could declare a state of emergency; it would not be difficult to find a pretext," said Konovalov. "The problem is, how do you enforce it?"


It is far from certain that the army would support him, he added.


An army of angry people who have not been paid in months, whose living standard has fallen drastically throughout the period of reforms, may have ideas of their own, said Leontiyev.


"In order to cancel the elections, the president would have to rely on forces outside the electorate," he said. "But it does not take a great deal of looking to find an opponent who has a lot more influence with those 'extra-electoral' forces than Yeltsin does -- Alexander Lebed."


"Anything goes at this point," said a Western diplomat, who asked not to be named. "The state structure is still so fragile, so unstable, that it feels like everything could be in jeopardy."


While Yeltsin himself may be committed to reform, to the Constitution, and the system he has helped put in place, the diplomat added, "I do not believe at this moment that he is in control."


The main problem confronting the president and his aides, say analysts, is the lack of an acceptable successor. Chernomyrdin has been effectively undermined by the president's inner circle, said Leontiyev.


Experts consider that a more suitable candidate, from the point of view of those around the president, might be Yury Skokov, the head of the Congress of Russian Communities, a party whose popularity and influence are growing rapidly, largely thanks to the charisma of Skokov's co-leader, Lebed.


Skokov, said Konovalov, "had the intelligence, the cunning, and the manners to announce publicly that he would guarantee the security of the president under a new regime."


Observers are hoping that a suitable compromise can be reached, to avoid plunging the country into another crisis. But most are convinced that Yeltsin will not voluntarily step aside.


"Presidents have the character of racehorses," said Konovalov. "They will never let anyone pass them from behind."