The Russian Army has now nearly won the battle in Grozny, despite nearly having been broken during the unsuccessful and bloody storming of the city that began New Year's Eve. During that attack, poorly trained infantry and tank and APC crews -- 18- and 19-year-old high school kids with only a few months service in the army -- were cut off by Chechen fighters. Headquarters in Mozdok and Moscow lost control of the battle and the troops were completely on their own. Some were killed, some surrendered, but many regrouped, rallied and continued to fight.


The forward units that were cut off by the Chechens were able to create several strongholds in the city. The Chechens surrounded these improvised fortresses and tried to capture them, but each assault was met by Russian heavy artillery fire. Formerly elusive Chechen units now fell into a trap, allowing themselves to get bogged down in positional warfare. Finally, Russian gunners were given firm targets at which to aim.


As a result, the Chechens took more and more punishment from Russian guns. On Jan. 6, Russian troops began a careful, slow assault from the region around the railroad station to the presidential palace. And these were not new, "elite" units, but the same paratroop and motor-rifle infantry that have been in Chechnya since the campaign began. The advance was supported by artillery, self-propelled rocket launchers and tanks. At night, the Russians halted and took up defensive positions. During the day, they inched forward, their artillery concentrating on each opposition stronghold, one by one


Toward Jan. 9, the Russian Army was in nearly complete control of central Grozny. Dzhokhar Dudayev's men continued to resist, but now it was they who were limited to merely defending a few strongholds in the center of the city. The Chechens are also running low on ammunition and much of their heavy weaponry has been destroyed or put out of action.


On Jan. 8, Russian troops began the assault on the presidential palace itself. The last defenders of this symbol of Chechen resistance and independence are now holed up in a Cold-War era bomb shelter under the building.


Of course, the Russians could storm the entrance to the bunker -- which was not built to resist a ground attack -- and snuff out the remaining opposition with flamethrowers, the tactic standard Soviet combat procedures call for in such a situation. Obviously, though, this would be a bad public relations move, to say the least. After all, there are Russian prisoners of war, Russian and foreign journalists and several members of the Russian Duma in the bunker with the Chechens.


This is why the Russian leadership announced a unilateral cease-fire on Jan. 10. Russian troops have no desire to create yet another bloodbath and are hoping against hope that the Chechens will acknowledge their defeat and surrender. We can now expect rather drawn-out negotiations between Russian commanders and the occupants of the presidential palace. The Russian Army, now occupying most of Grozny, does not intend to give up any of its hard-won ground, and the Chechens, of course, cannot sit forever in the bunker.


Someone's nerve will have to give way: Either the Chechens will surrender or the Russians will destroy the bunker. They could, after all, always announce through the government press center that the Chechens simply chose to immolate themselves.


After the holdouts in the presidential palace are neutralized one way or another, Russian troops will be free to eliminate the rebels from the southern part of the city, and the Chechens will be left with no choice but to begin the long-promised partisan war. But Dudayev's supporters may run into unexpected difficulties in this regard. Already, many mountain villages are making demonstrations of their loyalty to the Russian Army, out of fear that Russian planes will bomb them off the map. Moreover, Dudayev has many personal enemies throughout the country.


During a whole month of fighting, the Chechens have not been able to organize even a single partisan attack against the communication lines of the Russian Army or to even briefly hold up the supply of heavy artillery shells to the batteries that have been pounding away at their units in Grozny. It seems likely that the desperate last stand of Dudayev's supporters in the bunker of the presidential palace is a sign that they themselves understand the game is up.


Pavel Felgenhauer is defense and national security editor for Segodnya.