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Gas and CIS Future Top Minsk Agenda

President Vladimir Putin and heads of other member nations of the Commonwealth of Independent States will meet in Minsk on Tuesday to discuss energy, trade and ways of reviving what critics say is an increasingly irrelevant organization.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili hopes to meet with Putin on the sidelines of the summit to discuss Russian sanctions and gas prices.

But "there is no final decision on the matter," Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Denisov said in comments published Monday in Nezavisimaya Gazeta. "Georgia's request is being considered."

The CIS lacks teeth, given that even the free trade zone agreement signed 12 years ago is still not enforced, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk said. "If this is going to go on, the meaning [of the CIS] will disappear," he told reporters in Minsk, Interfax reported.

Boosting CIS effectiveness and more than 20 other issues -- including economic integration, money laundering, terrorism, illegal migration and human trafficking -- are on Tuesday's agenda, said Vladimir Rushailo, managing secretary of the CIS.

Energy and trade issues, however, are expected to steal the spotlight. Analysts said a proposal to create an OPEC-style gas agreement among CIS countries should take center stage Tuesday. No final decisions are expected, however.

No concrete proposal for a CIS gas cartel has been made public, and Russian officials have repeatedly denied any plans to create a global cartel.

In any case, Russian gas will be on many CIS leaders' minds, with Gazprom planning to boost prices for its consumers in Europe and the CIS next year. (Story, Page 5.)

In a move that seems to preempt a price hike, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has proposed making an agreement with Ukraine to jointly coordinate prices for gas transit.

The plan has the flavor of "slight blackmail," said Vadim Karasyov, director of the Kiev-based Institute of Global Strategies. No formal negotiations have begun, and the deal is unlikely to go through, he said.

A pan-CIS agreement on energy cooperation would make more economic sense, Karasyov said, but Ukraine would have a hard time joining because such an agreement would be seen as pro-Russian and thus be unpopular.

Russia is taking news of the Ukrainian-Belarussian energy negotiations "calmly," Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov said Friday in Minsk.

Issues regarding Russian-Belarussian ties may provoke more controversy Tuesday than any meetings Putin has with Georgian and Moldovan officials, said Nikolai Petrov, an analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center.

Russia could use the summit to announce a step toward lifting a nearly yearlong ban on Georgian and Moldovan wine, Petrov added.

Unless a resolution for the trade sanctions is found, "Moldova and Georgia may become unfortunate obstacles" to Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, he said.

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