A gambler's guide

There will be no England, no France, no European champion Denmark. There will be no Ruud Gullit, Careca or Paul Gascoigne. But there will be 24 determined sides, perhaps as evenly matched as ever, providing the World Cup with its most seductive quality: unpredictability.Because of the totally different types of soccer played all round the world, it becomes very difficult to know what will happen when, for example, the silky skills of Latin America meet the burly bluster of the North European game. Throw in lesser-known quantities such as the African nations or outsiders South Korea, and you have the perfect recipe for sport: favorites, underdogs, everything at stake and a huge potential for upset -- remember Cameroon 1, Argentina 0 in Italy in 1990? In short, anything can happen, but this is what probably will:  GROUP A United StatesIf it hopes to make the second round and spare the embarrassment of being the first host nation to lose in the opening stages, the United States will have to improve dramatically a feeble record which has seen it win only four times in its last 16 internationals. Two recent warm-up games have seen the Americans draw 0-0 against the unfancied Saudis and lose against German club side Bayern Munich 3-2. "If the U.S. plays like that it will be difficult for them," Bayern manager Klaus Augenthaler was quoted by Reuters as saying after his side had laid bare the weaknesses of the U.S. defense. That could be an understatement.Midfield general John Harkes, who has just finished a grueling season in England, will be welcomed back into the squad with open arms, and the hosts will look to Roy Wegerle and Ernie Stewart to provide goals that might just help beat Switzerland. But defeats at the hands of Colombia and Romania will make second-round qualification difficult. Forecast: First roundSwitzerlandNo sex please, he's British.That's the message that has been drummed into Switzerland's players as they prepare for the World Cup finals, following a partial ban by English coach Ray Hodgson on carnal indulgence for the duration of Swiss participation in the tournament.But this eccentric stricture notwithstanding, Hodgson has served the Swiss well, bringing together a tight and competent unit that qualified with few problems for its first finals since 1966. Experienced in defense, and boasting a handful of Bundesliga stars including strikers Stephane Chapuisat and Adrian Knup, the Swiss will fancy their chances in a weak Group A, and could even get as far as the quarterfinals -- if they value soccer more than sex that is.Forecast: Second roundColombiaAn outside tip to go all the way. Bookmakers have been quoting Colombia at around 12-1 to take the cup, and the side that beat Argentina 5-0 last October is sure to give you a good run for your money.The flowing locks of skipper Carlos Valderrama will be on view again, but he has a much stronger side than the one that fizzled out in Italia '90, especially up front, where the irrepressible Faustino Asprillo, who plays his soccer and performs his cartwheels in Parma, will team up with Freddy Rincon, another footballer in the jubilant South American mold.One evil portent however: $30,000 worth of the squad's uniforms went missing shortly before it set off for the United States. Could make for an interesting team photo.Colombia will take this group and won't let up until it meets Brazil in the semifinals. Forecast: SemifinalsRomaniaRomania's side is graced with some accomplished players who typify the measured, skills-based game that is endemic to East European soccer. The temperamental Gheorge Hagi delighted briefly in Italia '90, and watch for AC Milan striker Florin Raducioiu to make an impact.Forward Ilie Dumitrescu looks to be on form with three goals in two games against fellow finalists Nigeria and Bolivia in warm-up games, but a goalkeeping vacancy could prove difficult to plug. A recent 0-0 draw against Slovenia suggests the worst, but a fairly weak group will speed the Carpathians as far as the second round and perhaps beyond.Forecast: QuarterfinalsGROUP B Brazil If three-time world champion Brazil can get through this tough opening group it will go all the way. But it's a big if. Brazil will need to be resilient to overcome Cameroon, creative to break down the Swedes and defensively watertight to keep out the potentially dangerous Russian attack. But the Brazilians might just have the team to do all that and more. Romario is rated as one of the best -- and moodiest -- strikers in the world. If it takes two defenders to tie up Romario, that might just make some more room for fellow strikers Bebeto and Muller to work their magic. The former has scored almost at will for Spanish club Deportivo in the past two years, the latter stood out in World Cup '90 as a rising star amid a generally disappointing Brazilian team. Brazil will be worried about the form of midfield playmaker Rai who has been off form lately, but with the likes of Branco, Jorginho and Edmundo in the squad, there is a fair sprinkling of superb talent that should make Brazil great to watch.Forecast: Brazil to prove for a fourth time that your players only need one name to become world champions.RussiaWill the real Russian squad please stand up? Or turn up?The answer is no it will not, but Russian soccer, like its space program, is still capable of proving that once a superpower, always a superpower.Robbed of top stars such as Manchester United's exciting winger Andrei Kanchelskis and Inter Milan midfield playmaker Igor Shalimov following a dressing room rebellion directed at coach Pavel Sadyrin, Russia nonetheless has a wealth of talent, an exciting forward line and in Viktor Onopko, one of the most impressive liberos around.But woe betide the Russians if they fall behind: heads tend to droop, the slick passing breaks down and the defense leaks. Moreover, much of the squad hails from the same Spartak Moscow side that looked a class or three poorer than Barcelona in European Cup action back in March.Although Russia should make light work of Cameroon and Sweden, the rematch of Brazilian Romario vs. Yury Nikiforov should be every bit as one-sided and humiliating for the Russian as the first round in Barcelona.Forecast: Down to earth with a bump in round 2.Forecast: Second roundCameroonHard times have hit our heroes. Successive defeats against club sides Auxerre and Turin and a pitiful lack of money has all but scuttled any last chances they may have had of progression past the opening round. All such a far cry from Italia '90...The "Indomitable Lions" were the unlikely stars of the 1990 World Cup, managing to play their way into the hearts and minds of the soccer world from the tournament's very first match when they upset Argentina. Since when, soccer pundits have stopped at nothing to lavish praise on the conquering lions, the soul of African soccer, the flagship of third-world football.Everyone remembers Roger Milla's superb goals in Italy, the cheeky way he stole that ball right under Columbian keeper Rene Higuita's foot, the tenacious way the African side fought in a thrilling quarterfinal against England. But we forget the heinous challenges committed throughout Italia '90, we forget the yellow cards and sendings-off, we forget the shortfall in technique.We shall be reminded of all that in the United States.Forecast: Lions? Unlikely to utter so much as a roar.SwedenA major disappointment in Italia '90 (0-3), Sweden managed to get its act together a little to reach the European championship semifinals in 1992, and then qualified for USA '94 with ease.Tomas Brolin and Martin Dahlin lead the Swedes up front and Jonas Thern marshals the midfield, but still prone to disappoint.Forecast: Swede FA GROUP C Germany Despite a recent drubbing of a substandard Austrian team, last month's defeat at home to the Irish will have sown the seeds of doubt in a German side that as world champion automatically qualified for the finals and thus has played little together since the European Championships in 1992.Germany looked very ordinary against the Irish, and signs of weaknesses showed through: Lothar Matthaus is no longer a dangerous midfielder but has been put out to pasture as a libero; Jurgen Klinnsmann falls over too often and Karlheinz Riedle has struggled with fitness all season. Added to that is the age factor: Matthaus, Andreas Brehme and Guido Buchwald are all 33, and the snowy-haired, evergreen Rudi Voller earns a recall at age 34.Much will rest on how midfielders Andreas Moller and Matthias Sammer fare, and a weak group should guarantee smooth German progression to the second round and beyond. But a likely quarterfinal match-up with the Italians will prove costly and deprive the world champion of a fourth World Cup.Forecast: Quarterfinals BoliviaThe Bolivians were the real surprise element in the South American qualifying rounds, beating Brazil in La Paz 2-0, World Cup evergreen Uruguay 3-0 and thrashing Venezuela 7-1 for good measure to qualify for the first time since 1950. Perhaps their success stemmed from all that coca-leaf tea, which almost cost defender Miguel Rimba his career when he dope-tested positive after a cuppa.In Marco Etcheverry, Bolivia undoubtedly has a playmaker of real class, but he has been sidelined with an injury since November. It will take his goals and a Boston coca-tea party against South Korea for Bolivia to end an unhappy finals record that reads played three, lost three. Forecast: Second roundSouth KoreaSouth Korea has a dismal played-nine-lost-nine record at World Cup finals and this record is unlikely to be substantially improved, despite the talents of midfield general Kim Ju-sung, and strikers Hwang Sun-hoong and Ko Jung-woon.If they can pull off a win against the Bolivians, they could make the second round as a third-placed qualifier, but any higher ambitions are likely to be thwarted by defeats in their two games in Dallas."We will return with a present for the nation," team coach Kim Ho said before the team left Seoul. But will the nation be satisfied with a cowboy hat?Forecast: Back in Seoul by July 1SpainIt remains one of soccer's great mysteries why a country with one of the best leagues in the world cannot produce a world-beating international team. Barcelona, Deportivo, Real Madrid -- you'd expect them all to beat a prosaic Spanish team that scraped into USA '94 at the expense of Denmark, and whose best player, Julio Salinas, cannot even get first team soccer at Barcelona.Spain has a disappointing World Cup history, and is unlikely to change all that in Chicago and Dallas.Forecast: Second roundGROUP D Argentina Argentina has still to regain the heights that saw it win the World Cup in 1978 and again in 1986. Villain of the piece in the final in Italy in 1990, where it lost 1-0 to Germany in a spoiled game, Argentina has suffered an extended run of poor form recently and could struggle even in a nominally weak group.Having suffered a 5-0 defeat in Buenos Aires against the cheeky Colombians, Argentina failed to qualify outright for the finals and needed a nerve-racking playoff replay against the Australians to qualify. In warm-up matches the two-time world champion has fared scarcely better, scratching out a 3-3 draw away at Chile and losing at lowly Ecuador as well. Only in a recent 3-0 victory against Israel did the Argentineans show any sign of form.Argentina's fortunes will depend very much on the attitude and performance of the toxic twins -- Diego Maradona and Claudio Caniggia. The troubled Maradona is a slower, stouter version of the star of Mexico '86, and Caniggia has had little top-level match practice since his suspension for cocaine abuse. But if these two turn it on, and the hand of God makes another supernatural appearance, don't write Argentina off. Watch for Gabriel Bastituta to score a few and a weak bottom half of the draw to speed them on their way.Forecast: SemifinalistBulgariaTen seconds.That was what separated Bulgaria from World Cup elimination back in November in a tense match against France. Then Emil Kostadinov snatched a last-gasp goal to send the Bulgarians into their sixth finals where they hope to win their first finals match -- and this could be the group to do it in. Yordan Lechkov controls things in the middle of the park and Kostadinov supplies the finishing touches -- if Hristo Stoichkov doesn't get there first.Barcelona's Stoichkov has impressed this writer more than any other striker in the past European season. He's pacey, sharp and can use either foot to make defenders look very silly. Forecast: Second-round fodderNigeriaThe Africa Nations Cup winners fully deserved their title and are the best that Africa has to offer this time around. Striker Rashid Yekini is big, powerful and likes scoring goals, and the defense is mean. Could surprise a few people, but looks set for a fatal clash with Italy in the second round.Forecast: No joy hereGreeceBeware of Greeks bearing gifts? If you're Trojan perhaps. But if you're Argentinean, Bulgarian or Nigerian, cash in on the defensive offerings -- there should be a lot of them.Forecast: Too many Achilles heels, no Wooden Horse surprises GROUP E Italy They couldn't do it on home soil in 1990, so what chance have they in the States?An even better one -- if they can come through the group from hell unscathed.The Italians will want to win Group E to earn safe passage to the final in what looks like being the weaker bottom half of the draw. But they will have to be wary of the styles of their Group E opponents which run counter to their own way of playing the great game. Against Ireland and Norway the counterattack will be everything. There will be no time to build slowly from the back in the laconic continental style. Italy has the talent to do so. The combination of Roberto Baggio and Daniele Massaro up front is second only to Brazil's Romario-Bebeto strike force. Demetrio Albertini provides the grace in midfield and Franco Baresi, at 33, is still among the most miserly liberos in the game. Plus in Roberto Donadoni, Italy has potentially the most exciting winger in the finals. His performance in AC Milan's European Cup win was breathtaking.Forecast: Forze Italia to lose to Brazil in a great finalIreland So Jack Charlton did it again. While the U.K. teams all failed miserably to qualify for the World Cup, the feisty Geordie who likes his fishing led the Republic of Ireland team to its second finals.Since then Ireland has put together a handy little run, beating the Germans in Hanover, the Dutch in Amsterdam, and overcoming Bolivia in Dublin. The Irish play a tight game that closely resembles standard fare in the English premier league: tight marking, physical challenges and almost excessive use of the long ball. Not attractive, but highly effective against the more cultured European game. The Irish have the added advantages of being perennial underdogs, a tag that seems to suit them, and the likelihood of partisan crowds.However, some of the key players like Paul McGrath, Kevin Moran, Ray Houghton, Tony Cascarino and John Aldridge are positively ancient. How will they handle Mexico and the debilitating heat and humidity of Orlando? With three Kellys in the squad, the Irish join the South Koreans and Saudis as the commentators' nightmares.Forecast: Likely casualties in a very tough group Norway They qualified in fine style and have continued to look reasonably impressive, with a 2-1 win over European champion Denmark only last week. With the squad anchored around Werder defender Rune Bratseth and enigmatic Spurs goalkeeper Erik Thorstvedt, the defense should be reasonably solid and the squad is smattered with players who ply their trade in England's premier league. Their game is correspondingly similar to that of the Irish -- direct, physical and defensive (watch for a titanic Norway-Ireland struggle in New York), but it's successful too, and with seven defeats in their last 38 matches, the Norwegians are not in the business of losing too often.But don't expect too many fireworks in Norway's games -- these guys are Wimbledon with blonde hair, and their matches could be good ones to miss if you've got some making up to do.Forecast: No Viking conquest Mexico The Mexicans have complained of the smoggy training conditions that they have been subjected to in Mexico City. This could work to their advantage when they play Ireland in the muggy humidity of Orlando, Florida. Could prove a surprise element, and if Luis "Zaguinho" Alves and Luis Garcia score a few, Mexico should finish second in this group. Forecast: Second round GROUP F BelgiumOver the past decade, Belgium has put together an enviable World Cup record, qualifying for the last four successive tournaments, and reaching the semifinals in 1986.But in barely qualifying for USA '94, the Belgians revealed a key weakness likely to plague them in their tournament campaign -- scoring goals. Belgium is another of those sides that earn success by packing the defense and cashing in on the few chances created for their strikers. It got away with this in its qualifying group -- just -- but in Orlando the tactic may well run dry, and Belgium could find itself flattered as the seed in Group F. Skipper Enzo Scifo is the key here, a masterful midfielder who curls in 25-meter free kicks in his sleep. With a solid base, and Scifo's ability to turn players and open up defenses, Belgium could continue its success of recent years.Forecast: QuarterfinalsThe NetherlandsThe Dutch have had a topsy-turvy approach to the finals, including messy qualification, and the recent loss of one player who might have made a difference in the States: Ruud Gullit.A long-running feud between coach Dick Advocaat and the polyglot rastaman means Gullit joins the likes of England's Paul Gascoigne, France's Jean-Pierre Papin and Denmark's Michael Laudrup as world-class players who will not grace the world-class event.Marco van Basten will also be missing, despite recent rumors that he would be included: An ankle injury keeps him from partnering Dennis Bergkamp up front. However, Bergkamp remains lethal, as the hapless Hungarians found to their cost recently in a warm-up match. But can Holland go all the way, with Ronald Koeman looking slow at the back these days, and Wim Jonk and Jan Wouters unlikely to dominate stronger opposition in the boilerhouse?Forecast: Look headed for an unfortunate quarterfinal clash with BrazilMorocco Moroccan coach Abdallah Ajri was quoted by Reuters as saying he planned to build a "Berlin Wall" defense against Belgium and Holland to achieve the desired results. Would that be the same Berlin Wall that was torn down by Germany in 1990 and is now freely passable to all, including Belgian and Dutch strikers? Unfortunately for Morocco, I rather suspect so.Forecast: Will not even score a goal.Saudi ArabiaAn unknown quantity, and likely to remain so. First-time finalist with an alarming predisposition for sacking team coaches and rearing falcons. Forecast: An early trip home on the magic carpet.World Cup Betting3-1 Brazil ? 4-1 Germany ? 6-1 Italy, Holland ? 9-1 Argentina, Colombia? 20-1 Belgium, Spain? 33-1 Nigeria, Norway, Russia ? 40-1 Bulgaria, Ireland, Rumania, Sweden, Switzerland ? 50-1 Bolivia, U.S.A. ? 66-1 Mexico ? 80-1 Cameroon ? 100-1 Greece ? 200-1 Morocco, South Korea ? 500-1 Saudi Arabia (Odds supplied by Metelitsa Entertainment Complex, Novy Arbat. Wagers may be placed at Metelitsa any day after 1 P.M. All World Cup games will be broadcast live in English and Russian. For more information or updated odds, call Metelitsa at 291-1130.) Sex and soccer: do they really mix?BUENOS AIRES, Argentina -- To do it, or not to do it. That is the question.Every four years, just before the start of each World Cup, one of the most heated discussions, right up there with who will win the tournament, involves the matter of how much or how little sexual activity is desirable for participants in the games.Opinions vary. Some coaches ban wives and girlfriends throughout the month-long tournament. Others are more permissive; after all, they are dealing with world-class athletes who carry with them the hopes and dreams of a nation.The famed 1974 Dutch team, starring Johann Cruyff and brother-in-law Jan Neeskens, runner-up in that year's World Cup, is regarded as one of the best of all time. It also earned a reputation as one of the loosest: Players were filmed passionately kissing girlfriends on the team bus.The merry bus rides seemed to inspire the Dutch. In the final game against Germany, they scored in the first minute as Cruyff converted a penalty kick. But "Clockwork Orange," as the Dutch team was known, ended up losing 2-1.Was it a case of superior German play or too much sex?Dr. Brian Doyle, a clinical professor of psychiatry at Georgetown University, says there are no clinical studies that prove that sexual activity diminishes athletic performance, "just a lot of folklore in the athletic community."In 1986, the team discipline on the field instilled by professorial-looking coach Carlos Bilardo was widely credited with Argentina's championship performance. But recently, the star of that team said Bilardo was no fool when it came to extracurricular activities."On the night before our first game, we all went out to dinner and partied until two in the morning, then we scored three on the Koreans," said midfielder Diego Maradona. "After that, we went out every night before the games." That training regimen seems to have stuck with the Argentineans. Earlier this months, on a rare night off from training camp, Maradona and five players partied at a local disco until five in the morning. On that same night, another teammate, apparently inebriated, crashed his car into a tree at 2 A.M. and barely escaped serious injury."We worked hard all week and we needed the recreation," explained Maradona. "Besides, if you talk about sex, back when Bilardo was coach..." Maradona, a married man and proud father, caught himself and didn't finish the sentence. Instead, he rolled his eyes.But not every team adheres to this philosophy. Among the strictest disciplinarians is Coach Roy Hodson of Switzerland. An Englishman in the Victorian tradition, Hodson issued a ban on sexual relations to his players for the tournament shortly after Switzerland qualified.Last month, however, apparently reacting to player dissatisfaction, he agreed to allow two visits from wives and girlfriends to team headquarters -- the first after the opening game against the United States on June 18 and the next eight days later, after the Colombia game. Brazil, a country touted for the three 'S's -- soccer, samba and sex -- has earned a reputation for great teams and even better parties."It will not be for lack of sex that Brazil will lose the World Cup," Coach Carlos Alberto Parreira reassured the nation. Stadiums that will stage the finalsGiant StadiumEast Rutherford, New Jersey.Capacity: 76,891.Av. July temp.: 29.7 C.Not only home to the Giants, but was also the ground where the New York Cosmos and Pele played. Expect the most passionate crowds here. Italy plays all three first round matches here and, with 3 million people of Italian descent living within 50 miles of Manhattan, these games are a sell-out. The Irish community also has two of its homeland's matches here. The field itself is grass, trucked in from North Carolina and laid over the permanent artificial turf.Robert F. Kennedy Memorial StadiumWashington D. C.Capacity: 56,500.Av. July temp.:31 C.One of the three sites where, despite protests from FIFA, fences have been put up to protect players from any possible invasion by over-zealous fans. This ground is situated just 20 blocks east of the Capitol.Foxboro StadiumBoston, Massachusetts.Capacity: 61,000.Av. July temp.: 27.6 C.Despite all the expertise, this field's playing surface may prove the most controversial. It was re-grassed only a month ago. The stadium is also the scene of last year's famous U.S. victory over England -- the first in 43 years.Pontiac SilverdomeDetroit, Michigan.Capacity: 72,794.Av. July temp.: 28.3 C.This will be the first covered stadium ever to be used for the World Cup finals. With FIFA's insistence that no artificial turf be used, it was the site of a unique experiment to see if it was possible to grow sports grass indoors. Professors at Michigan State's Crop and Soil Sciences Department bet it was, and 6 million pounds of Kentucky bluegrass, soil from the Pacific Earth Resources Sod farm in Camarillo, California and $1.5 million later, they appear to be right. After Germany played there last summer, their coach Berti Vogts said, "What they have done in Michigan is a miracle."But if the grass is fine, conditions inside this greenhouse of a stadium may not be. There is no air-conditioning and teams from Sweden and Russia, who play here, may wilt fast.Soldier FieldChicago, Illinois.Capacity: 66,814.Av. July temp.: 28.5 C.Situated on the shore of Lake Michigan, this stadium has a pitch with grass trucked in from a farm in Colorado. This is the scene of Germany's first round matches and 30,000 of their fans are expected. Local German restaurants have canceled all staff leave and one has even erected a tent in the parking lot to handle the overspill.The Citrus BowlOrlando, Florida.Capacity: 70,188.Av. July temp: 26.7 C.Kevin Beary, sheriff of local Orange County, is taking no chances with crowd trouble. He prepared himself for the World Cup with terrorist and crowd control training in Belfast. His most recent expenditure included $262,000 for riot gear, bomb-squad devices, groin protectors for his deputies and shin guards for horses. All this for a venue whose most frequent home teams are Belgium and Morocco, neither of which are noted for the quantity or aggressiveness of their supporters.The Cotton BowlDallas, Texas.Capacity: 72,000.Av. July temp.: 36.5 C.Located in the center of Dallas' historic Fair Park, this is another venue where high temperatures may be a problem. To coincide with television prime time in Europe, most of the games will be held in daytime. In Dallas in July that means seriously hot weather. The Nigerians will love it, the Bulgarians will not.The Rose BowlLos Angeles, California.Capacity: 102,083.Av. July temp.: 28.3 C.This is where the final will be played, on a grass field that has been re-sown twice in the last two years. This stadium, actually located in Pasadena, also recently staged the Pink Floyd concerts.Stanford StadiumSan Francisco, California.Capacity: 86,019.Av. July temp.: 21 C.World Cup officials will not have much time to prepare things for their matches here, as Stanford will not actually turn over the field until after graduation exercises on June 12. This is only eight days before the first match at this venue in Palo Alto, 27 miles south of San Francisco.