Communist Gennady Zyuganov and his party comrades are filled with optimism. It is easy to understand why: the Communists received more than 20 percent of the party list vote. They will also be helped by the victory of single-mandate candidates in the okrugs, or administrative regions. No one doubts that the Communists will make up the largest faction of the State Duma. The Agrarians should also be included in the communist "mandate," if they overcome the 5 percent barrier. Moreover, even if they do not reach the 5 percent minimum, the single-mandate candidates from the party will join the Communists. It is also possible that they will be joined by several deputies from Women of Russia and the Congress of Russian Communities (KRO) -- if, of course, the KRO does not overcome the barrier. A movement to the left of the new State Duma can thus be expected. The question is: Will such a movement affect present reforms? If so, how?


Will the left receive enough of a majority in the elections to the Duma? Will its influence be radical or moderate, in line with the declarations Comrade Zyuganov has been making during the pre-election campaign, presenting himself almost as if he were a Russian Krasniewski? Even if the left wins such a majority, will it be able to influence seriously the policies of the executive powers through the existing parliament? And finally, how wide is the range of possible decisions the left can take given the difficult balance among the elite -- between Moscow and the regions, between officials and property owners and among various financial and industrial groups?


The party victory of the left will have to be shared with Yabloko, Our Home is Russia, the LDPR, and perhaps a coalition of Russia's Democratic Choice and other democratic blocs, as well as the self-governing workers' party of Svyatoslav Fyodorov who, although belonging the center left, finds himself in opposition to the Communists. Thus even the party section of the Duma will not be controlled by supporters of Zyuganov. The single-mandate candidates in the regions will give the government even more variety. The Communists may take the lead in the new parliament, but it is improbable that they will have an absolute majority. Moreover, the difference of views of the communists who support Zyuganov, the Congress of Russian Communities, Women of Russia, not to mention the different views of the leaders of the party, make it unlikely that they could create a left front with strict internal discipline.


How moderate will the left be in the new parliament? If their party programs are to be believed, very much so. Neither in the programs of the Communists and Agrarians nor the Congress of Russian Communities are there any calls for largescale nationalization, the destruction of private property or return to a planned economy. Rather, the Communist leader has managed to hint that his party would not insist on changing the cabinet ministers. Most ordinary communists and voters from the left are significantly more radical than their leaders. Unlike the Polish social-democrat Alexander Krasniewski, the Communist Zyuganov gets support from a lumpen stratum of society among people of an older generation -- around 55 years old -- who own no property and have no interest in spreading and defending a civil society.It is these people who will not allow the Russian communists to assume the role of "left reformers" and will inevitably urge them to take more radical decisions.


But can the left, even without a sufficient majority and the constitutional rights to influence the policies of the executive authorities, force the country to cut back market reforms? Theoretically this is possible. The main question is over the possible pressure the left can exert on budget policies. Having come to power under social slogans, they will ask for an increase in expenditures in certain parts of the budget. The only source that is truly available to the left for such a policy is to issue additional money. This clearly would lead to money without value, an increase in inflation and the attempt to control prices. Other projects that could unite the left might include a ban on buying and selling property, partial nationalization of several industries, control over the news media, a policy of putting strong pressure on the countries of the near abroad, the revival of the military-industrial complex and an attempt to create a military-political union with the countries of the C.I.S.


Should the left come to power they will certainly attempt such policies. But will they succeed? They will most likely to able to complicate market reforms. Today, however, any attempt at a communist revenge will be opposed not by a group of reformers but powerful financial and industrial clans that would be hurt by a change in economic policy. These groups are interested in maintaining the status quo which affords them a leading role and relative social stability. It is not by accident that in Moscow, the citadel of power and business, Our Home Is Russia won 20 percent of the vote. These are not simply votes, but votes that are strengthened by capital and powerful authorities.


Alas, Russia has never had a civil society which is capable of transforming destructive communist ideas into moderate social-democratic ones. However, this does not mean that the country is once again open to communist experiment. The corporate regime made up of various elites that has been formed in Russia is strong enough to defend its interests against any left revenge. If what is meant by revenge is not simple victory at the elections but fully carrying out certain political and economic ideas.





Lyudmila Telen is deputy chief editor of the weekly Moskovskiye Novosti. She contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.