With Treaty Signed, ?€?Reset?€™ May Stall

Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama signed a long-awaited and much-discussed nuclear arms reduction agreement in Prague on Thursday, ending a four-month gap since the previous treaty expired.

Both leaders hailed the document, which requires that their countries reduce their nuclear arsenals to 1,550 warheads over seven years, as opening a new chapter of cooperation between the world’s biggest nuclear powers.

But political analysts agreed that U.S.-Russian relations would likely remain limited to the existing range of global security topics, such as nuclear nonproliferation and the fight against terrorism. And Russia’s cooperation, they said, will continue to hang on whether Moscow perceives Washington’s development of an anti-ballistic missile shield as a threat to its security.

“Today is an important milestone for nuclear security and nonproliferation, and for U.S.-Russia relations,” Obama said after signing several documents, which aides shifted between the two presidents so that each document had both signatures.

Medvedev called the signing a “win-win” move, not only for the United States but for the entire world.

The new treaty replaces the 1991 nuclear arms control accord known as START, which expired in December. Work on a new treaty began shortly after Moscow and Washington pledged a year ago to “reset” relations that sank to nearly Cold War lows during the second terms of former Presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush.

The treaty was born out of painful negotiations as Russia demanded — and failed to win — the inclusion of a clause that would limit the U.S. effort to build a missile shield in Europe. On Thursday, the Kremlin issued a separate statement saying it retained the right to unilaterally withdraw from the treaty if it feels that its security is threatened by U.S. anti-missile defense programs.

The statement did not specify what conditions could lead to a unilateral withdrawal.

Obama pledged to fight to have the treaty ratified by the Senate, where he has faced obstruction from some opposition lawmakers on recent initiatives, while Medvedev called for a simultaneous ratification.

Russian officials were quoted by news agencies as saying Thursday that the treaty would be submitted to the State Duma in late April. Kremlin-backed initiatives can typically be passed quickly through the Russian parliament’s lower house.

Immediately after the signing, Obama and Medvedev held closed-door talks focusing on sanctions against a nuclear-ambitious Iran and on global work to prevent terrorists from getting hold of nuclear weapons — both topics that have dominated the U.S.-Russian agenda for nearly a decade.

Emerging after the meeting, Medvedev was as elusive on Iran sanctions as he was months before, saying Moscow would support only “smart” sanctions that would compel Tehran to cooperate on nuclear issues but would not make the Iranian people suffer.

Russian political analysts said that even after a breakthrough like the signing of a critical security pact, the U.S.-Russian agenda will continue to be dominated by global security issues.

“This treaty is not the right starting point for a broad rapprochement between the two countries,” said Pavel Zolotaryov, a deputy head of the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies.

Growing economic ties could bring them closer, though Russia remains focused on Europe while the United States considers China its strategic economic partner, he said.

Last year, the trade volume between Russia and the United States fell by more than half to just $16 billion, from $36 billion a year earlier. Even in 2008, when their bilateral economic ties peaked, trade volumes with the United States accounted for less than 4 percent of Russia’s overall foreign trade, making Washington its eighth-largest partner.

The relationship is even less significant for Washington, with Russia comprising less than 1 percent of U.S. foreign trade in 2008.

Success on the arms reduction treaty is not likely to spill over into other bilateral issues, because nuclear security is a “thing in itself,” said Fyodor Lukyanov, a political analyst and editor of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine.

“There needs to be a set of new, 21st-century topics … but they haven’t emerged yet,” he said.

Moscow and Washington moved to create several working groups on different issues pertaining to bilateral areas of interest during Obama’s visit to Moscow in July. So far, most of the high-ranking groups — with the exception of those involved in the arms treaty — have not delivered any publicly tangible results.

“For Obama, Russia is an instrumental partner needed to solve national security problems, like with Iran and Afghanistan,” Lukyanov said. “Moscow, for its part, builds its attitude toward the United States depending on how [Washington] is involved in the affairs in the post-Soviet republics.”

Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute of Strategic Assessments, said the United States was forced to talk to Russia as an equal, even though it dramatically lags behind economically and technologically, in order to “remove clots” blocking much-needed cooperation on Iran, nonproliferation and the war on terror.

And while few analysts saw room for much closer ties beyond the realm of global security, they agreed that the development of a joint anti-ballistic missile defense could be the next step forward for Moscow and Washington.

“This would be an ideal scenario, demonstrating the highest level of trust,” ?­Konovalov said, adding that it was not yet clear whether the Americans wished to proceed on the project with Russia.

Both sides have said several times that they are ready to develop joint missile defense systems to protect the world from a possible attack by a rogue country.

Russia’s proposals, voiced by Putin both as president and prime minister, have been broader than the United States’ ideas for cooperation. He suggested that the countries use Russian radar to track possible launches and set up information-exchange centers in Moscow and at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Obama’s administration has expressed its readiness to accept only the first part of Moscow’s offer.

Zolotaryov, of the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, agreed that the defense system could help improve ties. Without calling on Russia to cooperate on its missile defense work, the United States will not be able to capitalize on the arms reduction treaty’s success in the other issues of its national interest, he said.