Fifth CIS summit will resolve little

On the cusp of the Commonwealth of Independent State's fifth summit opening Friday in Tashkent, the delicate five-month alliance between the former Soviet republics is more tenuous than ever.


Since the birth of the CIS, the partnership has yielded little other than dissent, civil unrest and unanswered questions. But instead of cementing cracks between the republics, the meeting will likely prove that the 11-member union is little more than words and is nearing its end.


"I dont think it will be the final blow", said one Western diplomat who agreed to speak on the grounds on anonymity. "It will be just another stage in the downward path".


At least 15 items of national importance have been posted for discussion on the summit's two-day agenda. Topics including the reduction of strategic arms, the fate of military serviceman as well as economic issues will be discused.


"Every summit produces masses of documents, but I cant see any real breakthrough coming about on the issues", said the Western official. and the absence of key Commonwealth leaders at the table is sure to thwart the possibility of resolving any of the pending crises.


Kyrghystan's Askar Akayev and Moldova's Mircha Snegur will not be there. Nor is it clear that Yagub Mamedov of Azerbaijan and Rakhmon Nabiyev of Tajikistan will participate.


Most importantly, though, Ukrainian President Leonid Kravchuk will not come to the table. Just back from an official visit to the United States, Kravchuk claimed on Wednesday that a state visit by Finland's President Mauno Koivisto precluded his attendance and that his prime minister would serve as a surrogate.


Then, Ukrainian parliament passed a referendum annulling a declaration on Crimea's independence and called for direct presidential rule over the valuable peninsula, handed over from Russia to Ukraine in 1954.


Yeltsin and Kravchuk have been duking it out over who should rule the fertile peninsula, home to many Russian speakers and the strategically important Black Sea Fleet. The Ukrainian Parliament's most recent decision is sure to stir up hostility over one of the sorest spots between the two largest republics.


Ukraine's one-two punch at Russian President Boris Yeltsin Wednesday also does not bode well for the fate of the Commonwealth of Independent States.


"The relationship between Ukraine and Russia is crucial", said the Western diplomat. "It is bound to deteriorate and set the scene for what will happen in the rest of the Commonwealth".


Elsewhere, fresh blood is being spilled with few prospects to stem the flow of violence and keep the Commonwealth united.


"Mutual threats will lead to a deadlock not only in relations between neighboring states but the Commonwealth of Independent States as a whole", Kazakhstan's President Nursultan Nazarbayev was quoted as saying in ITAR-TASS on Thursday.


A glance at some of the ethnic conflicts confirms Nazarbayev's gloomy forecast.


South Ossetia, which seeks independence from Georgia, burst into flames again, leaving more than 10 dead within the past three days. The latest round of violence spurred Eduard Shevardnadze to fly to the capital of Tskhinnvali Wednesday where he was able to mediate a temporary cease-fire between Georgian mill-tants and South Ossetian leaders.


The four-year war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh continues as fighting now erupts beyond the disputed territory.


Neither side trusts Russia, or other Commonwealth nations, enough to help end the devastation, which has left almost 2, 000 dead. Acting Azeri President Jagub Mamedov sent a plea toU. S. President George Bush to step in to put an end "to the bloodshed", ITAR-TASS reported Wednesday


Then there is Moldova which is under a state of emergency over the breakaway Trans-Dneister region -- occupied primarily by Slavs in a republic whose majority of inhabitants are ethnic Rumanians.


Moldovan President Snegur has repeatedly accused Russia of "gross interference" and biased support of the Slavic minority.


While Moldovan leader Snegur is sending representatives to Tashkent, none are vested with authority to sign documents emerging from the summit.


And in the Central Asian republic of Tajikistan, rival Muslim groups continue to spar, despite this week's agreement from former communist President Rakhmon Nabiyev to form a coalition government.


Other Central Asian republics have begun to strike out on their own, further distancing themselves from the Commonwealth.


Leaders of oil-rich Kazakhastan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan met in Ashkhabad last week with representatives from Turkey, Iran and Pakistan to secure their own economic interests.


When it comes to economic matters, Russia, once again, has tried to take the lead, making Moscow the focal point. With last week's announcement that Russia will usurp control over the ruble, pushing it towards convertibility hopefully by the summer, other republics have no choice but to follow suit or defect.


While Ukraine will create its own currency, it is unclear which republics will opt to be part of the ruble zone.


Under the best circumstances, it would be unlikely that a two-day summit could produce concrete results. If the last summit held in March in Kiev, where nothing but hostility resulted, is any indication, the time clock on the Commonwealth is running out.