The approved draft of the budget must be signed into law by President Yeltsin. Delyagin said this was a "matter of days." Political analysts ruled out the possibility that the president would not endorse the bill and send it back to the new State Duma, due to start its new term in mid-January 1996.
"It is very good that the budget was passed before the start of the new year, but what is more important is that it was passed before the new Duma convenes, because this gives the government a chance to continue with the economic policy it has chosen," said Dmitry Rubvalter, another expert at the presidential analytical center.
The IMF loan, called an Extended Fund Facility, would likely follow the current $6.5 billion loan, aimed at macroeconomic and monetary reform, which was approved by the IMF in April 1995. The size of the new loan is widely expected to be about $9 billion.
Oleg Vyugin, head of the macroeconomics department of the Finance Ministry, said the loan was due for approval next month, but "technical problems" could cause a delay.
IMF officials in Moscow were not available for comment on Wednesday.
The approved bill sets the monthly inflation rate at 1.9 percent, which Delyagin called a victory for the negotiations between Russia and the IMF.
"When you see a [monthly inflation] figure of 1.9 percent in the draft, realistically you should expect it to be from 3 to 5 percent," he added.
Vyugin said inflation in December was estimated at 3 percent, but the figure may be substantially lower next January. "I am afraid that inflation next year may be lower than 1.9 percent, and then we are going to have a lot of problems with the budget," he added.
The budget was overwhelmingly passed by the parliament's upper chamber Tuesday after heated debate and calls by some senators to kill the draft. The final vote showed surprising support for the bill, with 95 deputies voting for and only 14 against, with three abstentions.
Alexander Titkin, deputy chairman of parliament procedures, called upon deputies during the debate to put their differences aside and warned that blocking the draft could create political havoc in the country.
"I am afraid the draft of the budget may become an issue of political bargaining in the run-up to the presidential elections [in June 1996] between the members of the new Duma and Federation Council," he said.
The bill sets the budget deficit at 88.5 trillion rubles ($19 billion), or 3.85 percent of gross domestic product. Non-inflationary sources will be used to cover the budget deficit, including internal borrowings of 56.1 trillion rubles ($12 billion) and foreign loans of 32.4 trillion rubles ($7 billion).
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