U.S. President Barack Obama’s policy to “reset” U.S. relations with Russia is showing progress. Although the Dec. 5 deadline has passed on the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, the United States and Russia are working cooperatively on its replacement.
The reset is helping the United States and Russia to stem nuclear proliferation. Recently, Russia joined the United States and France in a new proposal to Iran to forgo enriching uranium that could be used to build nuclear weapons. Tehran rejected the proposal, and Russia may now be open to consider whether to join the United States and other nations in imposing sanctions on Iran.
U.S.-Russian joint efforts to address proliferation and other international security issues will be difficult to sustain, however, unless they are based on a broad set of shared national interests. As Obama declared at the Moscow summit in July, the relationship “has to be more than just security or dismantling weapons. It has to be about our common prosperity — the jobs we create, the innovation we unleash, the industries we build.”
In his Nov. 12 state-of-the-nation address, President Dmitry Medvedev defined Russia’s national interests to include mutual economic progress. Russia’s success in foreign policy, he said, should be based on a single criterion — “Does it contribute to improving living standards at home?” To achieve this objective, it will be necessary for Moscow to attract more foreign investment.
A door is opening for the United States and Russia to build a new relationship based on trade, investment and shared prosperity. Historically, the United States and Russia have hardly met their potential as economic partners. As Obama pointed out at the Moscow summit, total trade between the two nations is only $36 billion, which is about 1 percent of U.S. global trade.
The Obama administration’s policy toward Russia should focus on improving bilateral trade and investment. It should maximize opportunities for U.S. and Russian businesses, including both large and small enterprises, to sell products and services, engage in joint technological innovation and increase energy efficiency.
Medvedev insists that Russia will diversify away from reliance on energy exports and create a “smart economy.” To facilitate Russia’s diversification, U.S. business can engage in smart investment.
Common prosperity must be built on a framework of transparency and accountability. Obama’s policy should aim to establish more predictable regulations, enforceable agreements and impartial institutions to govern bilateral trade, investment and market access. The two nations should provide “national treatment” for U.S. investors in Russia and Russian investors in the United States.
The door to common prosperity will not open easily, however. Medvedev has staked Russia’s modernization on combating “legal nihilism” and government corruption. But Russia’s leaders are divided over whether to encourage foreign investment or to join rules-based trade institutions, such as the World Trade Organization.
The Kremlin is also prone to economic nationalism, particularly in the supply of oil and gas abroad, and it is showing renewed interest in the Chinese model of “authoritarian modernization” for its own development.
Obama’s policy should aim to narrow the governance gap between Russia and market economies in the West. U.S. economic influence could help induce Russia to integrate with international institutions, including both the WTO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Working with the European Union, the Obama administration could support Russia’s further implementation of the United Nations Convention Against Corruption and the Council of Europe’s Convention on Corruption.
The Obama administration should take steps toward common prosperity and coordinate this with national security policy. In the process, it can open further doors with Russia to mitigate a range of threats to global and regional stability.
Matthew H. Murray is president of Sovereign Ventures, Inc., a risk management firm that advises businesses, governments, and multilateral agencies in transition economies.