With presidential elections in Russia less than two years away, opinion polls show that President Dmitry Medvedev is rapidly catching up with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in popularity.
According to Russian Newsweek, confidential opinion polls by the Public Opinion Foundation show a virtual dead heat between Putin and Medvedev if both were on the ballot; 32 percent said they would vote for Putin and 31 percent for Medvedev. In January 2009, 46 percent were ready to vote for Putin and 20 percent for Medvedev.
Medvedev is growing on the job. People have gotten used to him as president and are gaining confidence in his ability to rule the nation. They are increasingly comfortable with him as a leader. They are cautiously enthusiastic about his agenda of modernization and are excited about his vigilante approach to justice. They endorse his use of “Internet democracy” to make the government more accountable.
Barring some unforeseen disaster, Medvedev will enter 2012 as a young, energetic and successful president. This will make it hard to explain to the Russian people why he should not run for a second term. No convincing narrative for not running exists. Any scenario where Medvedev were not to seek a second term would look kind of bizarre.
Were Putin to return to the presidency in 2012 by elbowing out the incumbent (a direct electoral challenge looks unfathomable), he would upset the much-prized political stability and erase the impressive achievements that he has shaped painstakingly over the past 12 years.
Medvedev’s recent outreach efforts to the ruling United Russia party indicate that he would not seek the endorsement of other parties, thus making the worst-case scenario of an open partisan battle with Putin unlikely. Instead, Medvedev is focused on cultivating a strong movement in support of his modernization agenda within United Russia. This will deny Putin the advantage of relying on his control over the largest political party during the elections and position Medvedev for another run as a loyal disciple of Putin.
It’s a no-brainer. Keep the tandem, avoid the face-off. Putin said he likes his job — let him keep it for as long as he wants. Medvedev for president, Putin for prime minister. Buy one, get one free. This would be a cheaper and nicer way to solve the 2012 problem. Don’t let the big boys behave like, well, boys.
Vladimir Frolov is president of LEFF Group, a government-relations and PR company.
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